Category 2 Hurricane Irma expected to take a turn. Latest updates, and what you should expect as it nears SC

Here's the latest story for Irma in Beaufort County

Hurricane Irma made landfall in the Florida Keys just after 9 a.m. Sunday and traveled up part of Florida’s west coast throughout the day, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm is expected to make a north-northwest turn overnight and begin to pickup speed over the next day or so, but shouldn’t venture into the Gulf of Mexico.

The hurricane’s turn will keep it more or less along the coast or just inland at least until it reaches the Tampa Bay area, according to National Weather Service Charleston meteorologist Carl Barnes. The storm could have “natural wobbles” that are common with the cyclones, but should stay on land enough to help it weaken, he said. After Tampa, Irma has the potential to dip back into the Gulf briefly before reaching the panhandle and draw some strength from the water.

Irma was downgraded to Category 2 hurricane in the hurricane center’s 5 p.m. update and remained at that level until the 11 p.m. update. This comes after spending the last couple of days alternating between Category 3 and Category 4 status.

The system was approximately 40 miles east-northeast of Sarasota, Fla. and 50 miles southeast of Tampa, Fla. by 11 p.m. moving north at 14 mph, according to a partial hurricane center update. It was sustaining winds of 100 mph with higher gusts.

A gust of 83 mph was reported at the Juno Beach Pier shortly before 10 p.m. and gusts of 78 mph in Tampa Bay and Clearwater Beach, Fla.

Gusts of 142 mph and 101 mph were reported near Naples, Fla. and Cape Coral, Fla. respectively in the early evening as the hurricane progressed northward. The water level around Naples reported rose by 7 feet in 90 minutes early Sunday evening.

By late Sunday afternoon, there was very little chance that the storm would made a drastic turn to the east and include Beaufort County in its path.

Tropical weather track

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Source: National Hurricane Center

The storm is expected to pass to the west of the Lowcountry on Monday and perhaps the first part of Tuesday, with high winds possible as early as Sunday at 7 p.m. in Georgia and 11 p.m. in Beaufort County.

Marine effects are already being felt in the area, with dangerous rip currents and choppy surf already reported, and the tide gauge at Fort Pulaski measuring a high tide on Sunday just north of 9.3 feet, easily enough to prompt a coastal flood advisory, said James Carpenter, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Charleston. However, such advisories are superseded by the tropical storm warnings in effect.

Irma’s track has continued moving west, which should be a relief to Beaufort County residents, who found themselves in the cross hairs of that track only a couple days ago. As of 2 p.m. the cone of uncertainty is a healthy distance to the west of the Palmetto State, tracking across Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and even parts of Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky and Illinois while never entering the Carolinas.

Even so, evacuation orders remain in place for barrier islands in Beaufort, Jasper and Colleton counties, and South Carolina is still under a state of emergency.

“Just because the storm is not going to directly impact us with the eye, even the outer edges of it can cause major concerns,” said Michael Stroz, meteorologist with the weather service in Charleston. “The worst case scenario can be casualties and fatalities if people don’t watch closely what they are doing. Even though its not the eye of the storm, it is still the storm, and it is better to be safe than sorry.”

Latest Caribbean view by satellite

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Source: National Hurricane Center

States of emergency remain in effect in Florida, which will receive the brunt of Irma’s fury, as well as Georgia and North Carolina. Federal states of emergency have been declared for The U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Florida, the Catawba Indian Nation, and South Carolina.

Storm surge and other things to expect from Irma

Irma is expected to bring heavy rains, with between six and eight inches anticipated as it passes by the Lowcountry between Sunday night and Tuesday morning according to Charleston weather service meteorologist Blair Holloway. A storm surge of between four and six feet is possible, building to a peak Monday between approximately 1 p.m. and 2 p.m.

During the peak, with high and higher tides added to storm surge and rainfall, waters in Beaufort County could to come up 11.5 to 13.5 feet based on the tide gauges at Fort Pulaski, Ga., Holloway said.

“Even the low tide Monday morning won’t be particularly low thanks to the continuing winds,” Holloway said. It will take some time for the water to recede back in to the ocean, but tides should begin to return to normal levels on Tuesday.

Winds will be particularly strong late morning and early afternoon on Monday; around the same time as the peak of the flooding and tidal rises, Holloway said. Sustained winds are expected to be between about 30 and 40 mph with gusts at about 55 mph. Right on the beach, gusts could reach 60 mph or higher. Farther inland, winds could be slightly weaker. Either way, travel during these peak times could be dangerous, especially in areas with less coverage from the wind.

Between these two factors the probability of dangerous flooding, including flash flooding, river flooding and coastal flooding will be high. There will likely be areas of severe beach erosion as well, throughout the region.

Punishing tropical storm force winds should cause damage to power lines, personal property and trees, and power outages should be anticipated throughout the area.

Beaufort County also will be seeing the northeastern side of the storm, which exposes the area to higher winds and greater tornado potential. The twisters the Lowcountry is likely to encounter, Stroz stressed, are not the monsters seen in the Midwest. They are weaker and short lived, but still capable of doing damage.

In a Saturday press conference, South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster said that even after the storm passes, people need to act with caution, as damage to infrastructure and trees could create hazards.

Warnings and watches

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass.

A hurricane watch is in effect from north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach in South Carolina.

Tropical storm warnings have been set for Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach, the Florida Keys, Florida Bay, West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida and from north of Fernandina Beach in Florida to the South Santee River in South Carolina, while a watch is in place for the islands of Bimini and Grand Bahama.

Storm surge warnings are in place from the South Santee River in South Carolina southward to Jupiter Inlet in Florida, the Florida Keys, Tampa Bay, and from North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River.

Locally, the weather service has issued storm surge warnings, tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches for Beaufort, Coastal Bryan, Coastal Chatham, Coastal Colleton, Coastal Jasper, Coastal Liberty, Coastal McIntosh, and Inland Chatham counties.

These same areas are under a flash flood watch until 2 a.m. Tuesday.

Evacuations

Evacuations ordered by McMaster took effect Saturday morning at 10 a.m. for Daufuskie, Fripp, Hunting, Harbor and Hilton Head islands, but did not include Lady’s and St. Helena islands.

People who have left the evacuated islands will not be allowed to return until the order has been lifted, and during his news conference Sunday, McMaster did not provide a time line for when that might happen.

For those not under an evacuation order, McMaster advised seeking shelter and remaining in place until the Irma passes.

The governor also pledged thorough inspections of state bridges and other facilities following Irma to ensure the safety of residents in stricken areas.

This story was originally published September 10, 2017 at 5:35 AM with the headline "Category 2 Hurricane Irma expected to take a turn. Latest updates, and what you should expect as it nears SC."