Hurricane Irma’s latest track threatens SC. Hilton Head, other islands ordered to evacuate

Chances have decreased in the last 24 hours that Hurricane Irma will make landfall in Beaufort County, though forecasters warn that the massive storm increasingly threatens to rock the region with possible hurricane-level winds, tornadoes, dangerous storm surge and flooding, particularly some of the state’s barrier islands.

South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster issued mandatory evacuations for Beaufort County’s barrier islands including Hilton Head, Dafauskie, Hunting, and Harbor islands starting 10 a.m. Saturday.

Hurricane Irma’s projected track positions South Carolina just outside of the cone of uncertainty. But that doesn’t mean the Lowcountry is in the clear.

“Irma’s track continues to shift west, which is better for South Carolina, and unfortunate for Florida, but we won’t know anything for certain until the storm heads north,” Ron Morales, lead meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Charleston said. “Every passing hour that it doesn’t head north before it hits Florida is better for South Carolina.”

Morales warns that Beaufort County should not focus so much on the “cone of uncertainty,” which is a graphical representation of the average error in the position of the center issued by the National Hurricane Center.

“One third of the time, a hurricane falls outside of the projected cone, so it’s important to keep that in mind when planning for evacuation,” Morales said. “We’re telling people (in the Beaufort County area) to prepare for hurricane-force winds, especially on the coast.”

The record-breaking hurricane was downgraded to a Category 4 storm early Friday morning and has continued to weaken, but still threatens lives and property in Florida this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. update.

Tropical weather track

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Source: National Hurricane Center

The most recent track has the storm churning over land as it moves up the Florida Peninsula. It is now forecast to make landfall on the western coast of Florida on Sunday morning. That change in Irma’s track hinges on a turn forecast to happen sometime Saturday, and many weather models over the last 24 hours have shown a shift to that turn, with Irma now expected to move to the north-northwest instead of turning directly north, as was expected only a day ago.

“The track could easily shift again, which could put Beaufort County square in the middle of a hurricane landfall,” Morales said. “Saturday morning will be the breaking point.”

Possibilities of Irma’s impact

Direct landfall would bring extreme winds from the core of the storm, devastating storm surge and heavy rains, but those will also have to be dealt with if the storm keeps its current track and does not hit the Lowcountry directly.

“Even between the best case and the worst case the thing to stress is that this is still a significant storm for our area,” said meteorologist James Carpenter at the weather service in Charleston. “There is still reasonable access to moisture from the ocean on either side, so it may not weaken as much as anticipated.”

Morales added that “there is no way” of telling what maximum wind speeds the Lowcountry will face from this storm as of Friday evening. Strong winds will likely result in isolated to scattered wind damage to trees, with some power outages possible Monday and Monday night. However, the threat for major to extreme wind damage is decreasing.

Despite the storm’s changing path, forecasters are expecting dangerous storm surge in Beaufort County, especially along the barrier islands.

“Underneath the storm, there is a large dome of water. That is the storm surge,” said Carpenter. “As the storm moves up the coast of Florida that dome of water is also going to be pushing up the coast of Florida, and the only place for it to go as that storm is going north is north, and who is north of Florida?”

Latest models also place Beaufort County on the northeast side of Irma’s eye, which has the highest potential for tornadoes, likely Monday evening. The Lowcountry could see between seven and ten inches of rain between Sunday and Monday evening.

Conditions along the South Carolina and Georgia coasts are expected to deteriorate as early as Friday, with rising tides and coastal flooding possible Friday night. These waters will continue to rise as Irma closes in, and dangerous storm surge will become possible, the National Weather Service in Charleston warns.

Where is Irma

As of the Hurricane Center’s 11 p.m. update, Irma was located roughly 300 miles south-southeast of Miami and 120 miles east-southeast of Caibarien, Cuba, moving west at 13 mph and boasting sustained winds of 160 mph.

The storm has maintained Category 4 level winds as it approaches the U.S. mainland. Florida, which will get the worst of Irma when it collides with the Sunshine State as a Category 4 on Sunday, is under a state of emergency, as are Georgia and the Carolinas.

Latest Caribbean view by satellite

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Source: National Hurricane Center

Evacuations

South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster issued mandatory evacuations for Beaufort County’s barrier islands including Hilton Head, Dafauskie, Hunting and Harbor islands starting 10 a.m. Saturday. He said the Cross Island Parkway toll on Hilton Head will be lifted for the time being. More information on Beaufort County evacuations can be found here.

Evacuation routes are expected to be crowded and limited, said Lt. Col. Neil Baxley of the Beaufort County Sheriff’s Office in a press conference Thursday, and people are advised to pack up and leave as soon as possible.

When will Irma’s effects be felt in the Lowcountry?

Coastal flooding could start in the Lowcountry as early as Saturday and tropical storm level winds could hit South Carolina as early as Sunday. The weather service issued a coastal flood advisory and rip current warning for tonight along the Beaufort County coast.

Regardless of the exact track of the storm, sea conditions will deteriorate Friday night and Saturday, with very dangerous conditions Saturday night into Tuesday.

As Irma passes through, high winds will carry a possibility of wind damage, according to the Weather Service report, and could lead to widespread power outages. Georgia is expected to be hit hardest, but the Lowcountry could feel these effects as well. North and east of Irma’s center, tornadoes might be possible starting Monday.

This story was originally published September 8, 2017 at 3:59 PM with the headline "Hurricane Irma’s latest track threatens SC. Hilton Head, other islands ordered to evacuate."