Some hurricane models show Irma headed to SC Coast. Here’s why we shouldn’t worry yet

A new forecast for Hurricane Irma can be found here.

After intensifying froma tropical storm to a major hurricane in less than a day and a half, Hurricane Irma has fallen back to a Category 2 hurricane Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center reports.

The storm is currently roughly 1600 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 13 mph. It has sustained winds of 110 mph with gusts up to 132 mph.

Irma is expected to regain its major hurricane status in the coming days, and is eventually expected to gain Category 4 status. Its development from tropical storm to a major hurricane in a little more than a day might sound alarming, however NHC spokesman Dennis Feltgen says it is anything but.

“It is not at all uncommon to see a storm develop this quickly,” said Feltgen. “Rapid development is very common if the conditions are right.”

 

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

A combination of warm waters and low wind shear are proving ideal for the lightning speed with which Irma is gathering strength, forecasters say.

Irma is expected to continue moving west until the start of next week, at which point it should be forced in a more southwestern direction.

Where it goes after that is a little trickier. With each additional day in a forecast, models get more unsure. That is why the cone in an NHC hurricane track gets wider over time. It doesn’t represent the storm itself getting larger, but rather the uncertainty of its exact location in the model. That growing uncertainty is why the NHC does not put out forecasts past five days.

Tropical weather track

Reload page every few hours for the latest tracking information.

 

Source: National Hurricane Center

Other organizations do forecast further out than five days, producing models that show each potential path a storm might take layered onto a map. Some of the models that have been produced for Irma might be alarming for Lowcountry residents.

 

Source: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

That model, showing the many potential paths of Irma, was created by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and at least a few of the predicted paths within it show Hurricane Irma bearing down on the Lowcountry.

Even if the storm does head our way, though, Feltgen advises that comfort can be taken in the time we will have to prepare.

“This storm is a long way away, so there will be plenty of time to track it and see where it is going,” said Feltgen. “It is more than 1800 miles away from the Leeward Islands right now.”

A clearer picture of where Irma will ultimately end up will emerge over the next several days.

This story was originally published August 31, 2017 at 5:08 PM with the headline "Some hurricane models show Irma headed to SC Coast. Here’s why we shouldn’t worry yet."