NCAA Tournament picks: One conference will supply half of the Final Four
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Selection Sunday: Both UK teams headed to Indiana for NCAA Tournament
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Predicting the 2022 NCAA Tournament:
Final Four
Gonzaga. Mark Few’s Zags will survive a scary challenge from Texas Tech in the round of eight to earn their second straight Final Four berth.
Arizona. By the eye test, Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats are the most impressive team I’ve seen in 2021-22 — but what is the health status of injured guard Kerr Kriisa?
Iowa. In a region filled with flawed teams, why not the Hawkeyes — who have won nine of their last 10 and have a genuine star in Keegan Murray?
UCLA. The underlying metrics for Mick Cronin’s Bruins are that of a potential national champion — but can you trust those numbers?
National champion
Gonzaga over Arizona. Mark Few gets his first NCAA title by beating his longtime former assistant, Tommy Lloyd, in the finals.
Kentucky teams
Kentucky. Will defeat defensive-minded Saint Peter’s, survive a super-charged upset bid from Murray State, prevail in a grind-it-out affair over Purdue but fall in the round of eight to UCLA.
Murray State. Will oust San Francisco in the round of 64, before falling in a tight round-of-32 contest against Kentucky.
Upset specials
▪ No. 12 New Mexico State will oust No. 5 Connecticut in the West Region.
▪ No. 13 South Dakota State will beat No. 4 Providence in the Midwest Region.
▪ No. 11 Iowa State will defeat the No. 6 and Will Wade-less LSU Tigers in the Midwest Region.
Bracket breakdown
1. If you average the NET Rankings for the top four seeds in each region, the toughest is the East (7.5 average), followed by the South (8), the West (10.8) and the Midwest (18.8).
2. Two teams that, based on their metrics, have reason to feel they were seeded unfairly are both in the South Region — Tennessee and Houston.
Rick Barnes’ Volunteers are the No. 3 seed in spite of being ranked No. 7 by kenpom.com and No. 8 in the NCAA’s NET Rankings. Houston is the No. 5 seed even though Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars are No. 5 in the Kenpom ratings and No. 3 in the NET.
3. It has become accepted wisdom that the teams most likely to win the national championship can be found from among those ranked in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency in the Kenpom Ratings.
This season, there are only five such teams — Gonzaga (No. 1 offensive, No. 7 defensive); Arizona (No. 5, No. 20); Houston (No. 10, No. 11); Baylor (No. 9, No. 14); and UCLA (No. 15, No. 12).
4. With Kentucky and Murray State each in the field of 68, this is the 28th time in the past 29 NCAA tourneys that the commonwealth has had multiple entrants in the men’s tournament. The only exception was last year, when Morehead State was the state of Kentucky’s only entrant.
5. If Kentucky and Murray meet in the East Region round of 32, it will be the first time the two have ever played. In UK men’s hoops history, the Wildcats are 9-3 in NCAA Tournament games vs. in-state foes — Eastern Kentucky (1-0); Louisville (4-2); Morehead State (1-0); Northern Kentucky (1-0); and Western Kentucky (2-1).
This story was originally published March 13, 2022 at 9:44 PM with the headline "NCAA Tournament picks: One conference will supply half of the Final Four."
