‘Why risk it?’: Beaufort Co. may face COVID-19 surge after Thanksgiving, experts warn
The top medical officer at Beaufort Memorial Hospital has a stark warning for local residents: the area will likely see a surge of COVID-19 cases in coming weeks.
“We hope everybody continues holding the line with the precautions, but I think it would be naive to say that, for the long term, we’re going to keep the numbers this low,” Dr. Kurt Gambla said Tuesday.
Disease spread on Thanksgiving Day could push the county into dangerous territory, Gambla said.
Beaufort County on Wednesday was already listed as having a “high” incidence rate, with more than 203 coronavirus cases per 100,000 people recorded during a recent two-week span.
That’s why experts are pleading with S.C. residents to take public health guidelines seriously this week or skip out on Thanksgiving dinner altogether.
“Why go see grandma this year when there’s a chance grandma won’t be at Thanksgiving next year” after dying of COVID-19, said Dr. Scott Curry, an infectious disease specialist at the Medical University of South Carolina in Charleston. “All you gotta do is wait one season out. I know that’s not a popular message, but my goodness we’re on the cusp of probably four to five very effective vaccines.
“Why risk it? Do a Zoom Thanksgiving, order out, have Chinese, whatever it takes.”
Michael Schmidt, a microbiology and immunology professor at MUSC, was also blunt in his assessment of COVID-19 risks during the holiday season.
People should eat Thanksgiving dinner with their current social groups, he said, or have a meal with family and friends over FaceTime. Get a COVID-19 test if you do travel.
“It’s far safer and better than going to a funeral in three weeks,” he said.
‘I’d rather be prepared’
Beaufort County has fared well with local coronavirus spread this fall.
So far, at least.
Gambla, chief medical officer at Beaufort Memorial Hospital, said the medical center was treating only a handful of patients who had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Tuesday.
The percentage of positive viral tests conducted at the hospital, meanwhile, has remained steady in recent weeks, he said.
Those trends have mirrored countywide numbers. Beaufort County’s seven-day average of new cases dropped into the single digits in early October.
And even though cases have been rising over the past few days, the area hasn’t reported an outbreak like the Upstate’s.
All of that could change soon, Gambla said.
“With winter, and holidays, everything else, I think what we need to do is expect a surge, be prepared for a surge. If we don’t get it, great. I’d rather be prepared for one and be relieved that we didn’t get it,” he said.
Curry, of MUSC, said the Upstate is likely experiencing a COVID-19 spike due to colder weather. People are being driven indoors, he said, where the novel pathogen can easily circulate.
Gambla added that the two weeks following Thanksgiving will be crucial for Beaufort County. That’s when holiday infections will likely be confirmed.
“If all of a sudden our percentages start to go up,” Gambla said, “if people start to tell the story that, yeah, I traveled or I had visitors, then that’s what’s going to tell the tale for us.”
Safety tips
Bring your green bean casserole to grandma’s house for Thanksgiving dinner, Schmidt said, then FaceTime her and eat together virtually.
Gambla also suggested that local residents should eat only with those already living inside their households. Organize a virtual meal otherwise, he said.
Curry said people can spread SARS-CoV-2 as asymptomatic carriers or exhibit only mild symptoms. Don’t ignore that reality, he said.
“You never know who’s going to be the unlucky soul who gets a severe case,” Curry said.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, meanwhile, on Thursday recommended that people not travel to see relatives for Thanksgiving.
The CDC previously suggested that families wear masks, even when indoors, if around others who aren’t typically inside their household.
The CDC has also said people should try to host outdoor gatherings with local friends or family, if possible. Large indoor gatherings with strangers is one of the most dangerous options for Thanksgiving dinner, according to the S.C. Department of Health and Environmental Control.
If you end up eating inside, try to improve your home’s air circulation by opening windows or doors, the CDC said.
The nation’s top health protection agency has also recommended that families not hug, shake hands or bump elbows, as well.
The CDC previously said people should maintain a distance of six feet or more if around others they don’t know.
“We’ll be tempted to celebrate with family and friends like we would normally during any other year, but this is not a normal year,” said Dr. Jane Kelly, DHEC’s assistant state epidemiologist. “Without taking the proper precautions, the potential for skyrocketing cases and deaths is very possible.”
