How effective are COVID-19 mask rules in Hilton Head, Bluffton? Here’s what data show
The coronavirus’ spread slowed in most Beaufort County ZIP codes within five weeks after local mask mandates went into effect this past summer, according to a new Island Packet and Beaufort Gazette analysis of S.C. Department of Health and Environmental Control data.
The data appear to show how effective the area’s rules were by early August, when daily case counts began to drop in Beaufort County after a surge of infections in July.
Masking has been one of the county’s most contentious political issues amid the pandemic.
Protesters have argued that emergency mask rules infringe on civil liberties. And at least one group, No Mask Required HHI, has organized to oppose a mask ordinance that was passed on Hilton Head Island as local officials scrambled to mitigate the summer surge, absent a statewide order from Gov. Henry McMaster.
DHEC, though, has touted the ordinances as being key to controlling the deadly pathogen, noting positive effects in three statewide analyses of new cases this summer. Two of DHEC’s reports used at least five weeks of data.
The agency said that, in comparison to spots without mask mandates, areas with the ordinances had seen a greater percentage decrease in COVID-19 cases a month after their rules went into effect.
Those findings, however, did not break down what happened in specific jurisdictions.
Dr. Faith Polkey, chief clinical officer at Beaufort Jasper Hampton Comprehensive Health Services, said she’s noticed a downward trend in local SARS-CoV-2 infections since July.
“I think it is definitely attributable to mask wearing and ordinances,” she said.
Slowing the spread
Opponents of mask mandates point out that some of Beaufort County’s highest daily case counts came after local governments passed the ordinances, which have a range of punishments for violations.
But newly reported infections in mid-July, as an example, may have been weeks old. COVID-19 symptoms can appear two to 14 days after exposure to the virus, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
After that, someone infected with SARS-CoV-2 still has to get tested for the virus. And in early July, test turnaround times had slowed to a crawl in Beaufort County.
The mask rules also aimed to mitigate the spread of the pathogen, not completely stamp it out.
To better gauge the ordinances’ effects, The Island Packet and Beaufort Gazette calculated the weekly percentage increase in total COVID-19 cases by ZIP code during the five weeks before a local mandate went into effect and the five weeks after face coverings were required in some capacity.
Almost all of the county’s ZIP codes saw a noticeable decrease in disease spread post-ordinance, according to the analysis.
Just look to Bluffton’s ZIP code of 29910, which has reported the county’s highest number of COVID-19 cases this year. The week before its mandate went into effect July 1, total cases had increased by 42.69%.
By Aug. 5, that increase had dropped to just 11.16%.
Both Hilton Head ZIP codes saw improvements, too.
The 29926 ZIP code, for example, had a weekly percentage increase of 39.29% just before the town’s mask mandate went into effect June 30. On Aug. 4, that increase had fallen to 9.61%.
Most of the ZIP codes covering parts of unincorporated Beaufort County also saw positive trends.
St. Helena Island’s ZIP code of 29920, though, did not see a slow down in disease spread within five weeks of the countywide ordinance going into effect July 3. Only in the sixth week did the percentage increase suddenly drop there.
And the city of Beaufort’s ZIP code, 29902, was also hard to analyze, considering how the percentage increase fell, then rose in the five weeks after the city’s mandate began June 30. In the sixth week, however, that increase sunk to just 11.92%.
Coronavirus infections at Marine Corps Recruit Depot Parris Island are being reported in the 29902 ZIP code.
Other factors at play
Kathleen Cartmell, a public health professor at Clemson University, stressed that mask ordinances are not a “magic bullet.” A mandate’s effectiveness depends on how well people comply with the law.
Other precautions like social distancing can also help limit the virus’ spread, along with contact tracing and quarantines.
But experts say the practical benefits of masking are obvious, even if it’s impossible to perform a controlled experiment to determine an ordinance’s exact effects.
“Correlation isn’t causation, but it’s the best we’ve got in a pandemic,” said Dr. Scott Curry, an infectious disease specialist at the Medical University of South Carolina.
Jeremy Howard, a University of San Francisco researcher who gave a presentation about masks to epidemiologists at the World Health Organization, put it this way in a recent video:
If Howard was wearing a mask, and someone who wasn’t came close and later contracted COVID-19, would you be able to tell if Howard’s face covering was ineffective, or if the other person had been exposed to the virus elsewhere?
“The only way to study that properly, really, would be to actually have 50 cities where everybody in those cities were told not to wear masks, and 50 cities where everybody was told they have to wear masks. And then get compliance to work and compare them,” he said. “That would basically be logistically and ethically impossible.”
Curry agreed.
“Masking has helped a lot. And masking put a big dent in what would have otherwise been a complete mess of a situation,” he said.
Beyond the five weeks of case data the newspapers analyzed, Beaufort County’s coronavirus outbreak took a positive turn in September, like much of the state.
Hospitalizations are now down. Daily case counts have fallen. The average percentage of positive COVID-19 tests week-to-week has dropped to the single digits.
“I feel like we can beat it, I really do,” said Polkey, of BJHCHS. “But we have to do it together, and we have to look out for each other.”
What happens next?
The local mask ordinances have been re-upped since they were first implemented.
The Hilton Head Island Town Council voted Tuesday night to extend its mandate to Dec. 5. Beaufort and Bluffton’s two mandates, meanwhile, are set to expire Nov. 1.
Beaufort County’s mask ordinance expires Oct. 23. The county council will likely discuss it at a Monday meeting.
During its virtual meeting Tuesday, the council was bewildered by hundreds of negative comments on Facebook targeting the county’s mask mandate, The Island Packet and Beaufort Gazette previously reported.
People seemed to believe that if the council extended a COVID-19 state of emergency, the mask ordinance would be extended, too.
“Lawsuits are coming! We the people will not stand idly by while you people unlawfully infringe on our freedoms,” one commenter wrote.
BEHIND THE STORY
MOREHow we analyzed this data
The Island Packet and Beaufort Gazette conducted this analysis on Wednesday using S.C. Department of Health and Environmental Control data. The analysis excluded ZIP codes with less than 50 cases by mid-August. Those ZIP codes were: 29904, 29915, 29936 and 29941. With so few cases, some of the four ZIP codes saw 100% week-over-week percentage increases in total infections when only one additional case was reported by DHEC.
