Hurricane Irma, a Category 3, slows as it keeps Florida in its crosshairs

Over the last few hours, Hurricane Irma restrengthened to a Category 5 hurricane, then dropped back to a Category 4 as it brushed by Cuba. As of the National Hurricane Center’s 11 p.m. update, it is still a Category 3 major hurricane and expected to strengthen once past Cuba.

The good news for Lowcountry residents is that its track has continued shifting gradually west over the last 24 hours. The cone of uncertainty now passes entirely outside of South Carolina. Even so, evacuation orders took effect Saturday morning for islands along the Lowcountry coast, and hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge watches have been issued for for South Carolina.

Irma is currently 90 miles southeast of Key West, moving west-northwest at six mph. Its sustained winds are currently at 120 mph with higher gusts.

Where Irma ultimately goes will be determined by a shift in its track. Irma is making a turn to the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed expected through late Monday.

That shift was originally predicted to see the storm turning almost directly north.

Before Irma even has a chance to get to us, though, it will first make landfall in Florida, something anticipated to happen Sunday morning. The storm is expected to track up the Florida Panhandle before passing by the Lowcountry as a tropical storm on Monday.

Tropical weather track

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Source: National Hurricane Center

While Irma is currently expected to be weaker than initially forecast when it was thought the storm would directly hit Beaufort County from the east as a major hurricane, and while, for the time being, it appears that it will keep more distance than initially predicted, residents are not out of the woods yet.

“People need to take into account the fact that the storm is very large, and South Carolina is still going to see some impacts,” said James Carpenter, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Charleston. “At this time it looks like tropical storm force winds are possible, even probable, and those could cause damage to trees and even power outages Monday into Tuesday.

Additionally, Carpenter advises that even with the storm in a weakened state, it is still expected to drop six to ten inches or more of rain from Monday and Tuesday, which could bring flash flooding to the area. Rainwater getting into rivers could also cause river flooding. Irma could also still bring storm surge with it according to Carpenter, which will make the flood danger even more severe.

Rough seas will create dangerous marine conditions as well, according to the weather service.

Also, while Irma will not hit us directly, it will be showing Beaufort County its northeastern side, where chances for tornadoes greater.

Warnings and watches

Hurricane warnings are currently in effect from Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Aucilla River, and also for the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, Florida Bay, the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Matanzas and Havana, as well as Andros Island, Bimini and Grand Bahama.

Hurricane watches have been established north of Fernandina Beach in Florida to Edisto Beach in South Carolina, west of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass, and for the Cuban provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas.

Tropical storm warnings are set for the Cuban provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas, while watches have been issued from north of Edisto Beach to the South Santee River and west of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

Storm surge warnings have been issued from Volusia/Brevard County line southward around the Florida Peninsula to the Suwanee River, the Florida Keys and Tampa Bay, while watches are in effect from north of the Volusia/Brevard County line to the Isle of Palms, South Carolina and from north of the Suwanee River to Ochlockonee River.

In a press conference on Saturday, South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster said that even after the storm has passed, people should still act with caution, as damage to infrastructure and trees could create hazards.

Latest Caribbean view by satellite

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Source: National Hurricane Center

States of emergency have been declared in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. Federal states of emergency have been declared for The U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Florida, the Catawba Indian Nation, and the state of South Carolina.

Beaufort Mayor Billy Keyserling also declared a state of emergency for Beaufort on Wednesday.

Evacuations

Gov. McMaster ordered evacuations of the barrier islands of Beaufort, Jasper and Colleton counties Friday night.

The orders took effect at 10 a.m. Saturday for Daufuskie, Fripp, Hunting, Harbor and Hilton Head islands, but do not include Lady’s Island and St. Helena Island.

Roadblocks were established at 10 a.m., preventing people leaving these islands from returning. No lane reversals have yet been announced.

For areas not under an evacuation order, McMaster encouraged people to seek shelter and to look out for their personal safety.

No clear timeframe for the lifting of evacuation orders was given at McMaster’s Saturday press conference.

When will we see Irma’s first effects?

High winds from Irma might arrive in the Lowcountry by Sunday evening, though they are more likely early Monday morning.

We are already seeing rough surf and dangerous rip currents from Irma along the Lowcountry coast according to Carpenter, and could still see a storm surge as Irma comes through the area.

This story was originally published September 9, 2017 at 5:39 AM with the headline "Hurricane Irma, a Category 3, slows as it keeps Florida in its crosshairs."