Hurricane chances surging for the SC coast. 5 things you need to know for August

The Atlantic has seen five named tropical storms so far this year, with the first forming over a month before the official June 1 start of the hurricane season. While this season has already been eventful, things are set to pick up steam this month.

Here’s five things you need to know about hurricanes in the southeast before we hit the height of the hurricane season.

1. The peak of the Atlantic season starts soon.

“The peak of the season is from mid-August through late October, so that is when you are going to see the majority of named storms and hurricanes,” said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center. “We are running a bit ahead of pace with named storms. We’ve had five so far, and we normally don’t see that many named storms until the end of this month.”

According to Feltgen, the peak season sees 78 percent of tropical storm activity on average, as well as 87 percent of category one and two hurricanes and 96 percent of category three, four and five hurricanes.

2. This year has more potential for hurricanes in the Atlantic.

This year’s season has the potential to be more active than most, with 11 to 17 named storms predicted. Of those, five to nine are expected to become hurricanes, and two to four of those are expected to be major hurricanes. On average, Feltgen said, there are 12 named storms each year, with six hurricanes, three of which become classified as major.

“We normally don’t see an actual hurricane, statistically, until Aug. 10,” said Feltgen.

3. The Carolinas are more vulnerable to hurricanes during this season.

The southeast is currently moving out of an El Nino, which makes weather in the region cooler and wetter. That weather effect helps keep hurricane season less active, according to Carl Barnes, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Charleston. As the influence of El Nino weakens in the area, it will become more susceptible to tropical weather, especially because as El Nino is moving out, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is moving in.

“The Madden-Julian Oscillation is an area of rising atmospheric motion, which causes more thunderstorm activity,” said Barnes. “It is shifting from the Pacific to the Atlantic. That makes conditions more favorable for tropical weather, but it does not guarantee that it is going to get active in the next couple weeks.”

The Oscillation itself does not guarantee the formation of tropical storms. It is one part of a rich tapestry of factors, according to Barnes.

“For hurricane formation you need warm water, an atmosphere with a disturbance like a cluster of thunderstorms, you also need favorable winds,” said Barnes. “There are lots of pieces to the puzzle. No one thing will cause a hurricane to form, it is a collection of things.”

4. Let Tropical Storm Emily be a warning.

There is currently no significant activity in the Atlantic, but Tropical Storm Emily, which passed through Florida at the start of the week, clearly demonstrates that there is not always significant warning when storms develop.

“It is a great reminder that you need to have a hurricane plan,” said Feltgen. “You may not get a three or a five day notice. You may get something that is less than a day, sometimes less than half a day.”

5. Now is the time to start preparing.

Important steps in forming a hurricane plan, according to Feltgen, include making sure that your home is sufficiently insured and checking to see if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. If you are, you need to figure out where to go in the event of an evacuation. You will also need to have enough medicine, water, and non-perishable food on hand to remain self-sufficient for a week.

Just how active this hurricane season will be remains to be seen, even with the proper ingredients for a busy one in place. Barnes is quick to note, though, that you don’t need a large number of storms to do a large amount of damage.

“It only takes one storm to approach us, even if it is a below normal season, to have a really significant event,” said Barnes. “The important thing is to be prepared.”

This story was originally published August 2, 2017 at 4:35 PM with the headline "Hurricane chances surging for the SC coast. 5 things you need to know for August."