More than 20 Panthers could play their last games today. Who should stay, who should go
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Panthers at Buccaneers
Expanded coverage of Carolina’s Week 18 game.
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No two NFL seasons are ever the same.
Panthers coach Matt Rhule points to the progress Carolina’s defense has made — jumping from a bottom-half unit in 2020 to top three — as evidence his process is working.
He’s right, but there is no guarantee the defense plays this well next season. Carolina ranks second in yards, 16th in sacks and 10th in third-down efficiency. The Panthers have the only defense that hasn’t allowed an opening-drive score this season.
All impressive merits, made possible by a versatile Phil Snow scheme combined with several blue-chip players who the Panthers may not be able to retain this offseason. Carolina has more than 20 players whose contracts expire on Sunday.
Foundational pieces like Haason Reddick and Stephon Gilmore will hit the open market and ask for double-digit million annual salaries. If that happens it’ll be impossible for general manager Scott Fitterer to keep them all. Carolina has a projected cap space of $28 million according to spotrac.com. That number could be lower once finalized.
With so many pending free agents, let’s explore which Panthers players could be playing their last games for Carolina on Sunday and decide whether the Panthers should keep them. We’ll start with Panthers playing key roles against Tampa Bay.
Players in a key role
LB Haason Reddick
Reddick bet on himself last offseason signing a modest one-year, $6 million contract with Carolina after posting 12.5 sacks in a breakout season with Arizona. His 11 sacks this season ranks tied for 11th, solidifying himself as a legitimate NFL pass rusher.
According to Spotrac, Reddick’s calculated market value is $15.4 million. That’s the going rate for free agent pass rushers. Last offseason, the Titans signed former Steelers outside linebacker Bud Dupree to a five-year, $82 million deal with $35 million in guarantees.
The case front office executives will use against Reddick is that he’s a scheme-specific player. Reddick isn’t a traditional seven-technique defensive end, which the Panthers could use to beef up their front.
Should Panthers re-sign?
Yes. But the number must be right for both sides. Carolina doesn’t want to overpay. But all it takes is one team to offer Reddick top-market value.
QB Cam Newton
Newton joined the Panthers in Week 10, returning with two touchdowns in Carolina’s victory in Arizona. It’s the last time the Panthers won. Newton completed 54 percent of his passes, committed six total turnovers and lost all five of his starts.
There were flashes Newton still was a capable NFL quarterback. Against Washington, he went 21 of 27 and threw two touchdowns. To no fault of his own, Newton did not have time to fully learn the offense, limiting his play behind center.
Sam Darnold took over as a starter last week while Newton earned just one snap. Rhule said Newton is still a part of the game plan this week, likely as a red-zone runner.
Should Panthers re-sign
Maybe. Newton is still one of the most effective red-zone rushers in football. His 75 career rushing touchdowns are most all-time by a quarterback. If Newton embraces strictly a goal-line and short-yardage role then Carolina should explore bringing him back.
LS J.J. Jansen
The longest tenured Panthers could be playing his last game for Carolina on Sunday. The Panthers drafted long snapper Thomas Fletcher in the sixth round, signaling he is the future of the position. He spent the year on injured reserve.
Should Panthers re-sign?
No. This depends on how the Panthers view Fletcher. If Carolina does bring Jansen back, it’ll be to compete with Fletcher in training camp.
RB Ameer Abdullah
Abdullah impressed after joining the Panthers in Week 8. He’s Christian McCaffrey lite, able to open in the passing game and play important third-down roles. He’s shifty, reliable and has earned the trust of Rhule and the offensive coaching staff.
Should Panthers re-sign?
Yes. Abdullah serves as a quality insurance policy if CMC’s nagging injuries continue next season.
DT DaQuan Jones
Jones met expectations this year, providing a veteran presence on the interior of the defensive line. Several times Derrick Brown said he’s learned a lot from Jones. From a production standpoint, his six quarterback hits are tied for fifth on the team.
Should Panthers re-sign?
Yes. Jones should be available to return on a team-friendly deal.
TE Ian Thomas
Thomas dominated tight end snap counts last week and provides a reliable blocking option for an offense that should rely on the position more next season. He doesn’t have the upside of rookie Tommy Tremble but has been solid this season.
Should Panthers re-sign?
Yes. He’s the best blocking tight end on the roster. The Panthers want to run the ball more effectively next season. Thomas should play a key part in that.
LB Jermaine Carter
Carter earned a lot of reps this year. His 794 snaps are third-most on the team. He hasn’t made the most of his opportunities. His Pro Football Focus grades in tackling and run defense are both below 50.
Should Panthers re-sign?
No. The Panthers should look to improve their linebacker room this offseason. Carter belongs on an NFL roster but not in a key role.
G John Miller
Miller did not progress how the Panthers would’ve liked. He leads the team in sacks allowed, second in allowed pressures and has an overall PFF grade of 50.5, ranking 90th among qualified guards.
Should Panthers re-sign?
No. The Panthers must remake the interior of their offensive line, and Miller shouldn’t be a part of their plans. It’s the NFL, moving on happens.
Playing a limited role
S Juston Burris
Burris lost playing time to second-year safety Kenny Robinson over the past few weeks. Since being eliminated from the playoffs, the Panthers have been deploying younger players to evaluate their collective talent going forward.
Should Panthers re-sign?
No. Burris filled a valuable role this season as Carolina was thin at safety. But there is younger talent worth developing.
DE Marquis Haynes
Haynes hasn’t been a consistent part of the lineup all season. His rotational role signals he’s replaceable. Haynes put together a solid season, notching as many sacks (three) as Morgan Fox and Derrick Brown in half the snaps.
Should Panthers re-sign?
Maybe. Haynes returning could be contingent on what happens to other edge rushers like Reddick.
WR Brandon Zylstra
Zylstra came to Carolina as a punt returner and has emerged as an all-around special-teamer. He should see extended action at wide receiver with Shi Smith and Terrace Marshall out on Sunday.
Should Panthers re-sign?
Yes. He’s a valuable special-teamer even with unimpressive punt return numbers.
CB Rashaan Melvin
With Donte Jackson, Stephon Gilmore and C.J. Henderson all hindered by injuries, Melvin started alongside Keith Taylor last week. Henderson is questionable while Jackson and Gilmore won’t play.
Should Panthers re-sign?
Yes. If the Panthers cannot retain their higher-priority defensive backs then Melvin provides a quality depth coming back next season.
FB/TE Giovanni Ricci
Ricci looks fast on tape at times running deep over routes against opposing linebackers. But he has only been targeted twice, showing he’s an afterthought in the offense. It’s been difficult evaluating the Panthers passing game. Maybe a new scheme could involve Ricci more.
Should Panthers re-sign?
Yes. Versatility is hard to find. Ricci can play fullback and tight end.
OL Trent Scott
Scott earned seven starts and struggled in all of them. His 20.6 passing grade from PFF is the lowest on the team.
Should Panthers re-sign?
No. The Panthers will upgrade their interior offensive line and look for a more capable swing tackle.
Playing reserve role or ruled out
QB P.J. Walker
Sam Darnold is the Panthers quarterback under contract in 2022. Carolina could bring either Newton or P.J. Walker back. But it’s discouraging that Rhule did not believe in Walker enough to start him more than once.
Should Panthers re-sign?
No. The quarterback room will get expensive once the Panthers bring in competition for Darnold. Expect a completely remade quarterback room come training camp.
LB Frankie Luvu
Luvu played well against New Orleans but landed on the reserve/COVID list and likely will not play Sunday. He’s earned an opportunity to continue developing within Snow’s system.
Should Panthers re-sign?
Yes. His play-making on the edge makes him valuable, especially at the affordable number he’ll command.
C Matt Paradis
Though he is expected to make a full ACL recovery, extending Matt Paradis seems unlikely. He’s a quality starter, but the Panthers will shop for an upgrade.
Should Panthers re-sign?
No. The Panthers’ 2022 starting center is not on their current roster.
CB Donte Jackson
Jackson will ask for top cornerback money. Is he worth it? He’s undersized and has battled injuries, but Carolina often trusted him (for better or worse) against opposing No. 1 receivers. Henderson and a returning Jaycee Horn makes Jackson expendable.
Should Panthers re-sign?
No. Retaining Gilmore should take priority over Jackson.
CB Stephon Gilmore
Though he’s on the wrong side of 30 and still facing injury concerns, Gilmore proved he’s still a shutdown corner when healthy. Pairing him with Horn would be exciting and give the Panthers defense two No. 1 cornerbacks.
Should Panthers re-sign?
Yes. Star defensive backs are too valuable to just let walk. The Panthers traded a sixth-round pick to acquire Gilmore and should extend him on a front loaded three-year deal.
This story was originally published January 9, 2022 at 7:00 AM with the headline "More than 20 Panthers could play their last games today. Who should stay, who should go."
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