Hurricane Florence could impact the Lowcountry, experts say. Here’s what we know now

Some hurricane models indicate Hurricane Florence, the first major hurricane of the 2018 season, could pose a threat to the eastern United States coastline, including South Carolina.

Florence was a Category 1 hurricane on Thursday night and is expected to restrengthen, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was a Category 4 hurricane on Wednesday.

The storm was 985 miles east northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands at about 5 p.m. Thursday. Winds were near 80 mph, the NHC says.

What does that mean for residents and visitors to the Lowcountry? Meteorologists say it’s too soon to tell.

Johnathan Lamb, National Weather Service meteorologist, said Florence is more than seven days away from making an impact on land — if it even does. It could spin out to sea as most hurricanes following Florence’s northern path tend to do.

“The models at this stage are all over the place,” Lamb said Wednesday night. “It is just too far in advance to make predictions.”

Lamb said some impact from the hurricane is likely. This includes rip currents on the South Carolina coast as early as Sunday.

Meteorologists should have a better idea of the path of the storm by Sunday or Monday, Lamb said.

History shows it is unlikely that a storm as far north as Florence would hit the S.C. coast.

“It takes pretty specific conditions to keep them moving to the west for a long time,” Lamb said. “They will generally try to veer to the north as soon as they find a break in the pressure area.”

It would be highly unusual for it to head toward the Lowcountry, but it’s not impossible, Lamb said.

“There is a first time for everything, but the probabilities are pretty low,” Lamb said.

This time last year, residents of the Lowcountry were watching Hurricane Irma, then a Category 5 storm, make its way toward the eastern United States. It eventually would make landfall in southern Florida.

Meteorologists are watching two other areas of disturbance off the coast of Africa.

“Disturbance 1” is expected to become a tropical depression within the next few days. Formation chance in 48 hours was at 80 percent, formation chance over the next five days was 90 percent.

Another tropical wave was expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Friday. Formation chance in 48 hours was at 50 percent, and formation chance over the next five days was 80 percent.

This story was originally published September 6, 2018 at 9:00 AM.