Chance of tropical disturbance bubbling in gulf. What to know for Hilton Head area

The National Hurricane Center issued an area to watch for tropical activity forming in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

As of Wednesday morning, there’s a 20% chance a tropical cyclone will form over the next seven days. The cyclone could travel across central Florida, into southeast Georgia and the coast of South Carolina. The storm, if it develops, would be named “Bertha.”

Lead Meteorologist Courtney Maskell for the National Weather Service in Charleston said chances of major threats to the Lowcountry are slim. If a tropical storm develops, the system would likely just bring extra rain to the area, she said.

“I’m not seeing anything that’s screaming at me that this is something that anybody should be concerned about,” Maskell said. “They just have it at 20%, but this is a good reminder that we are in tropical season, so everybody should be prepared.”

Atlantic hurricane season off to a quiet start

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season would see eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, with one to three developing into major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).

Tropical Storm Arthur developed in the gulf on June 17, dumping heavy rain in portions of Texas before dissipating near Louisiana, producing strong storms and heavy rain across the southeast.

Tropical Storm Arthur is the only named storm so far during the Atlantic season, but it’s still early. Hurricane season started June 1.

In a typical Atlantic hurricane season, the first named storm forms by June 20, the first hurricane by Aug. 11 and the first major hurricane by Sept. 1, Maskell said.

A strengthening El Niño has major impacts as the climate event typically produces strong vertical wind shear, which works against hurricane formation in the Atlantic Ocean.

El Niño, and its counterpart La Niña, are the warm and cool phases of the earth’s climate patterns. An El Niño has already formed, with chances of it becoming one of the strongest on record. The strength of an El Niño does not guarantee stronger weather impacts, but may increase their likelihood.

El Niño is more likely to bring a wetter season in the southeast with increased flooding.

How to prep for a tropical storm or hurricane

South Carolina’s 2026 Hurricane Guide lists important information to know during an emergency, including essential items, evacuation zones and traffic routes.

Before a storm hits, emergency managers urge residents to create an emergency kit, including items such as water, non-perishable food, batteries, electronic chargers, a radio, a first aid kit, flashlights, identification, importation documents, cash, medications, pet items, toiletries, blankets and extra clothes.

Hurricane evacuations are issued by the governor when deemed necessary and are considered mandatory. Evacuation zones (A, B and C) are determined by potential storm surge and not by category of storm. Residents outside an evacuation zone can still evacuate, and those leaving do not have to wait until the designated time begins.

Officials say residents should be self-sufficient for the first 72 hours after a storm, as it can be difficult for emergency assistance to reach certain areas of the county depending on flooding or other hazards blocking a route.