El Niño has formed. Here are the weather changes to expect in the SC Lowcountry
The El Niño climate scientists warned about has begun in the Pacific Ocean.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed El Niño had formed on June 11. El Niño are warming periods in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. El Niño can last as long as a year.
El Niño formed thousands of miles from the Lowcountry, but can nonetheless have significant effects on its weather and climate. Here’s all you need to know about the El Niño:
How strong can El Niño get?
El Niño is part of a naturally occurring cycle of warming and cooling in the equatorial Pacific. This process is called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and El Niño can vary in strength. Forecasters say this El Niño could be one of the largest on record. The last strong El Niño occurred in 2015 and 2016.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released an El Nino advisory on June 11. Forecasters expect this El Niño to strengthen as the year goes on. It is weak now, but will strengthen in the fall and winter. An El Niño must surpass 2 degrees Celsius above average Pacific temperatures to reach very strong status. The CPC gives it a 63% chance to do so between November 2026 and January 2027.
El Niño could last long into 2027. The CPC gives it a 98% chance to continue through March. Between January and March, it has a 24% chance to remain very strong. The period of greatest strength will be between September and February.
What does El Niño mean for the Lowcountry?
Effects are unique to each El Niño, but forecasts are available for the next few months. And previous El Niños can give a picture of what’s to come.
El Niño events tend to generate above average temperatures. This El Niño will be no different. The CPC gives the Lowcountry a 40 to 50% chance of above average temperatures between July and December.
It forecasts precipitation to match seasonal averages this summer. From November 2026 to February 2027, the Lowcountry will have a 60 to 70% chance of above average precipitation.
According to NOAA, historically El Niño brings stormier weather to the South. High-tide flooding is also more likely during El Niño. NOAA forecasts that high-tide flooding will be possible in the Lowcountry for the rest of the year.
The Atlantic may see fewer named tropical cyclones this hurricane season. NOAA predicts it to be below-normal, partly due to El Niño. El Niño moves the Pacific Jet Stream south, creating winds that suppress development.
This does not mean damaging hurricanes won’t form this year. Major hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. during El Niño. During the 2015 to 2016 El Niño, South Carolina suffered a catastrophic flood event. Category Five Hurricane Joaquin provided the tropical moisture that caused the flood.