How much ice and rain could winter storm Fern drop on the Hilton Head area?
As a winter storm approaches South Carolina this weekend, updated forecasts suggest Beaufort County will avoid the worst of the icy conditions expected elsewhere in the state.
While Winter Storm Fern is forecast to bring cold temperatures and ice to much of the Palmetto State from Saturday through Monday, the latest outlook from the National Weather Service shows the threat of freezing rain and ice accumulation continuing to decrease for the Lowcountry. Rain is now expected to be the primary impact locally.
Here’s how much rain and ice are now expected to reach the Beaufort County area, according to the latest forecast update from the National Weather Service.
Hilton Head, Beaufort winter storm forecast
The threat of ice accumulation and freezing rain continues to decrease for the Hilton Head and Beaufort areas. Meteorologists on Thursday estimated less than a 10% chance of ice accumulation countywide, making it highly unlikely and shifting the primary concern to periods of rain through the weekend.
Hilton Head Island is expected to see periods of rain this weekend, with rain chances around 40% on Saturday and increasing to 50% Saturday night. High temperatures are expected to reach the low 50s Saturday and warm into the low 60s Sunday, while overnight lows remain in the low 40s.
Rainfall amounts are expected to stay light through Sunday morning, with totals under one-tenth of an inch. Rain chances increase to 80% Sunday evening.
Beaufort is forecast to see similar conditions, with intermittent rain chances through the weekend. Highs are expected to reach near 49 degrees Saturday and around 61 degrees Sunday, with overnight lows dipping into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Rainfall is expected to remain limited through Saturday night, with rain chances around 50% before increasing to 80% late Sunday.
The greatest probabilities for accumulating ice and freezing rain remain well inland, west of a line from Moncks Corner to Walterboro to Sylvania and Millen. As of Thursday, those areas face a 30–50% chance of light ice accumulation.
For Beaufort County, the Thursday forecast points to a predominantly rain-driven event. Frank Strait, South Carolina Department of Natural Resources severe weather liaison, said that elevated road surfaces can become slippery for a time for area inland, but the potential for tree and power line damage is low for most of the Lowcountry.
The most significant impacts are forecast to remain in inland areas of the state, particularly across the Midlands and Upstate.
Cold air arrives early next week
Precipitation is expected to end Sunday night into early Monday, but a cold front moving through the region could bring arctic air into the area Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Low temperatures are forecast to fall into the teens west of I-95, with lows in the low to mid-20s along the coast by Tuesday morning. Wind chills will also make temperatures feel colder. The National Weather Service has indicated that a cold weather advisory could be issued for southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia.
Hilton Head Island is expected to see temperatures drop to around 26 degrees Monday night through Tuesday morning, with Beaufort dipping to 24 degrees.
Temperatures are forecast to moderate slightly by Wednesday as high pressure shifts toward the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Southeast.
Winter weather prep in SC
On Wednesday, Gov. Henry McMaster declared a state of emergency in South Carolina as winter weather approaches. McMaster urged residents to closely monitor local forecasts, keep an emergency supply kit on hand and use caution if relying on alternative heating sources. He also encouraged people to check on neighbors who may need additional assistance, bring pets indoors and avoid travel during periods of freezing temperatures.
To protect roadways from ice and snow, the South Carolina Department of Transportation says it has stockpiled critical materials, including brine and calcium chloride for pretreating road surfaces.
The South Carolina Emergency Management Division also recommends residents review and prepare with the SC Winter Weather Guide, which includes checklists and tips for navigating hazardous conditions.
For the latest forecasts and updates, stay tuned to local news outlets and the NWS.
