Beaufort Co. evacs, lane reversals start today. When will Hurricane Dorian hit?
Hurricane Dorian will likely affect Beaufort County from Wednesday night until Friday this week as a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane, according to Neil Dixon, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Charleston.
Beaufort County has been ordered to evacuate by S.C. Gov. Henry McMaster. The evacuation order is in effect as of noon Monday.
“We do not want to gamble with a single life in South Carolina,” McMaster said during a press conference Monday afternoon.
Local schools in Beaufort and Jasper Counties are closed until further notice, according to the governor.
Hurricane Dorian was downgraded from a Category 5 to a Category 4 storm on Monday.
At noon Monday, lane reversals began on U.S. 278 on Hilton Head Island. One of the eastbound lanes has switched to westbound between Spanish Wells Road on the island and Moss Creek Drive in Bluffton, according to Maj. Bob Bromage with the Beaufort County Sheriff’s Office.
Traffic on U.S. 278 was 40 percent higher than normal Monday morning, S.C. Secretary of Transportation Christy Hall said during the governor’s press conference.
Tolls on the Cross Island Parkway on Hilton Head were waived beginning at 9 a.m. after some congestion started in the area Hall said.
Will the bridges close?
The bridges to the island are not closed, and one lane will remain open inbound to the island, the Town of Hilton Head Island said in a news release.
Bridges and causeways, such as the Hilton Head Island bridges, would likely close with the onset of tropical force winds, said Sheriff’s Office Lt. Col. Neil Baxley, commander of the Emergency Management Division. He said Monday that those winds could start Wednesday morning.
“Once tropical storm-force winds start blowing across the Hilton Head Island bridges, it is absolutely unsafe to cross those bridges, and we may have to barricade those bridges at that point,” Baxley said.
Hilton Head Island Mayor John McCann told residents Monday morning that they needed to leave. During a morning press conference held by the Beaufort County Sheriff’s Office, McCann noted wryly: “The weather is not going to turn out well.”
As of Monday afternoon, Hurricane Dorian was sitting over the Bahamas and moving at an agonizingly slow speed of 1 mph, Dixon said. The damage to the island nation is “catastrophic.”
When will Dorian be near Beaufort County?
Starting Monday night, the storm is forecast to move slowly up the Florida coast, moving parallel to land.
Dorian will remain a major hurricane until it arrives 80 to 100 miles east of the mouth of the Savannah River at 2 a.m. Thursday, Dixon said. Beaufort County will experience the strongest winds starting Wednesday night and going into Thursday.
By Thursday, the storm is likely going to have weakened to a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane.
“The current offshore forecast track will easily put 40- to 70-mph winds over coastal counties on Thursday. 40 mph winds begin over Beaufort, Jasper and Colleton counties after 10 p.m. Wednesday,” according to an S.C. Department of Natural Resources news release.
The eye of the hurricane is expected to stay 50 to 60 miles offshore from Beaufort County as it moves parallel to land, SCDNR said.
“The center of the storm is going to track over the coastal waters of South Carolina, but it’s a large storm so we’ll feel the effects of the wind, storm surge and rainfall,” Dixon added.
On Monday, the weather service said there is a 60 to 80 percent chance for tropical storm force winds in the next five days.
Rain and tornadoes
Dorian is expected to keep churning eastward away from Beaufort County after Thursday, Dixon said.
“Fortunately it looks like Dorian is going to stay on a steady pace to the northeast, and we’re not expecting Dorian to slow down,” Dixon said.
Beaufort County could see between 4 and 10 inches of rain in “a pretty short window of time” on Thursday, Dixon said.
A coastal flood advisory is in effect for nearly every coastal county of the state, according to a weather service news release. The highest risk for flooding rain is on Wednesday and Thursday, according to the weather service.
Dixon said Dorian brings an added risk of tornadoes to the area.
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In a weather service briefing, Beaufort County has the highest risk of tornadoes from Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Tornadoes are possible well ahead of the center of the storm due to high winds.
Storm Surge
The weather service has warned of moderate coastal flooding with each high tide cycle. The highest risk for storm surge-related flooding is on Wednesday and Thursday, according to the weather service.
The high tide times are as follows:
Tuesday: 12:14 p.m.
Wednesday: 12:29 a.m. and 1:11 p.m.
Thursday: 1:25 a.m. and 2:09 p.m
Friday: 2:21 a.m. and 3:05 p.m.
The threat of storm surge, an abnormal amount of water generated by an incoming storm, will peak midday Wednesday, Dixon said.
The surge will be between 6 and 11 feet, SCDNR and the weather service have reported.
Baxley said the worst case scenario for current forecasts could place one-third of Hilton Head Island under two feet of water.
The weather service predicts severe beach erosion and significant dune loss.
The “king tide,” or astronomical tide, peaked last week, Dixon said. Coastal flooding will mostly be due to normal tides, he said.
Forecast for Hilton Head Island
Tuesday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 9 a.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind 11 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday night: Tropical storm conditions possible. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78.
Wednesday: Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 9 a.m. Cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Wednesday night: Hurricane conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.
Thursday: Hurricane conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9 a.m, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent.
Thursday night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9 p.m., then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers before 9 a.m. Sunny, with a high near 87.
Friday night: Mostly clear, with a low around 74.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 87.
Source: NWS Charleston
This story was originally published September 2, 2019 at 9:08 AM.
