Tropical Storm Jerry to strengthen soon, forecasts say. Here’s what weather SC can expect
This story has been updated to include the latest information on the disturbance in the North Atlantic Ocean, now known as Subtropical Storm Karen.
As Tropical Storm Jerry continues to churn in the Atlantic and shift away from the Palmetto State, residents along the South Carolina coast will still want to keep their umbrellas and boots handy as a separate coastal storm system moves in this weekend.
Here’s the latest update on Jerry and the weekend forecast for South Carolina, along with a look at another tropical disturbance the National Hurricane Center is monitoring.
Tropical Storm Jerry
Tropical Storm Jerry remains several hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands and is forecast to become a low-category hurricane by Friday night as it moves east of Bermuda early next week. The current forecast by the NHC calls for “slow strengthening,” but it’s only expected to reach about a Category 1 storm intensity.
The storm is moving west-northwest at 18.4 mph and will pass near or just northeast of the Leeward Islands Thursday night.
While Jerry is expected to turn north and remain well offshore, the storm could bring large swells to the Southeast U.S. coast by early next week.
Weekend weather for coastal SC
More immediately, a separate, non-tropical coastal storm developing off the Southeast coast will deliver the biggest weather impacts to the region this weekend. This system is not tropical in nature but is behaving similarly, with strong winds, widespread rain and the potential for coastal flooding, particularly along the Lowcountry and Grand Strand regions.
Winds will begin increasing Thursday night and remain elevated through Saturday morning. Gusts of 35 to 40 mph are expected, with inland areas seeing gusts up to 30 to 35 mph.
Rainfall is expected across the coastal region. Most areas can expect 1 to 2 inches of rain, with higher totals of 2 to 4 inches possible in the Grand Strand.
Localized flash flooding is possible in areas where the heaviest rain falls, especially in urban or poor drainage zones.
Coastal flooding remains the primary concern, as the storm coincides with the “king tide” event following Tuesday night’s full moon. A Coastal Flood Watch is currently in effect for Charleston and coastal Colleton counties through mid-day Friday.
Marine conditions will be hazardous through early Sunday for the Grand Strand, with gale-force winds and up to 9-foot seas possible.
A Gale Warning and Small Craft Advisory are in effect for the Lowcountry region, and boating is strongly discouraged during this period.
A High Surf Advisory remains in place for the Lowcountry through Saturday night, with a risk of strong rip currents expected at all area beaches along the coast.
Here’s a look at the weekend forecast from the National Weather Service:
- In Charleston, temperatures will stay in the low 70s. There is a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday and a 40% chance on Saturday.
- The Hilton Head area will be similar, with slightly warmer highs in the mid-70s over the weekend. There is a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday and a 30% chance on Saturday.
- In the Myrtle Beach area, rain chances increase to 70% by Friday evening and dip to 60% by Saturday. This area is also expected to see gusty northeast winds and a continued risk for coastal flooding and dangerous surf.
By Sunday, all areas are expected to see some sunny skies.
Tropical disturbance in the North Atlantic Ocean
Meanwhile, the NHC is also monitoring a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic. As of Oct. 9, this system was moving west at 23 mph, but has a 10% chance of formation over the next 48 hours and seven days.
Friday, Oct. 10 update: This development strengthened overnight to Subtropical Storm Karen and has a maximum sustained wind speed of 45 mph. It is currently located in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean and about 570 miles northwest of the Azores.
The NHC says that this storm is moving northeastward at 9 mph and is expected to gain a faster northeastward motion Friday evening and into Saturday. The current projected path shows no impact to the U.S.
This story was originally published October 9, 2025 at 3:32 PM.
