Will hurricane forecasts for SC be worse after DoD retires aging satellite program soon?
A shift in hurricane forecasting is underway as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Department of Defense officially retire the aging Defense Meteorological Satellite Program at the end of this month.
Operated by the U.S. Department of Defense since the 1960s, the program will stop delivering data on July 31.
This program collected environmental information each day from satellites orbiting Earth to provide real-time details about weather conditions to the military and scientists for traditional forecasting purposes.
Starting Aug. 1, that naval branch will no longer process or upload satellite data to the computing interface where meteorologists previously accessed it, according to NOAA.
While meteorologists and researchers are prepared for this change, NOAA officials emphasize that newer, more advanced satellites will continue to support critical forecasting missions during what is expected to be an above-average hurricane season.
“The DMSP satellite program is a single dataset in a robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools in the National Weather Service portfolio,” John Bateman, spokesperson and meteorologist for NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service, wrote in an email. “NOAA’s data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure gold-standard weather forecasting.”
What this means for SC
Coastal South Carolina is no stranger to tropical threats, especially as peak hurricane season arrives in August and September.
Since Hurricane Andrew in 1992, NOAA states that hurricane tracking forecasts have improved by 75% and intensity forecasts by 50%.
NOAA stresses that the suspension of this satellite program is just one dataset in a comprehensive forecasting toolkit and that scientists and meteorologists use an array of satellite information, land-based, sea-based and aircraft-related instruments to collect observational data, meaning that forecasts won’t be any less accurate.
Ground radar, weather balloons, Hurricane Hunter aircraft and data from other satellites will continue to support forecasting through this transition.
Why the satellite program shutdown now?
Even though the termination of this data comes on the cusp of hurricane season, the United States Space Force noted that these satellites would reach the end of their lives between 2023 and 2026, meaning the data would likely have been lost soon.
This shutdown, initially announced on June 25 by the Trump administration, noted that the data collection, processing and distribution would terminate no later than June 30. Since that announcement, a date extension was requested by NASA, pushing the suspension to July 31.
The data cutoff from the satellite program also comes after NOAA lost a substantial chunk of its staff to layoffs and buyouts earlier this year, stemming from Trump’s initiative to reduce government spending.
But the move to terminate this system stretches back even earlier to 2015, when a congressional decision was made to end the satellite program, citing outdated technology and mounting cybersecurity risks.
Though it has remained a workhorse of satellite weather data, the program was originally designed to last just five years. Most of its satellites, launched between 1999 and 2009, have now operated more than 15 years, existing beyond their intended lifespan.
How did the satellite program work?
Three of these satellites orbit Earth 14 times per day with special sensor microwave imager and sounder instruments.
These microwave sensors allow meteorologists to look inside clouds, mimicking the way an MRI looks inside a human body. With these instruments, meteorologists can pinpoint a storm’s center and identify signs of intensification.
Precisely locating the center of a hurricane improves forecasts of the storm’s future track. This lets meteorologists produce more accurate hurricane watches, warnings and evacuations.
What’s replacing it?
While this long-relied-on satellite system reaches its close, NOAA states that hurricane forecasters will still continue to use all available tools, including satellite, radar, weather balloon and dropsonde data, to monitor the tropics and issue hurricane forecasts.
Two existing services with similar microwave sensor tracking, the Weather System Follow-On – Microwave and the Electro-Optical/Infrared Weather System, are being used as successors.
The first Weather System Follow-On satellite, launched in 2024, became operational in April and is already delivering data to Department of Defense users, with full integration into NOAA systems expected soon, according to NOAA.
Three other polar-orbiting satellites: NOAA-20, NOAA-21 and Suomi NPP also use microwave instruments that help fill forecasting gaps.
In addition, in the 2026 budget request, NOAA is increasing funding for its other satellite programs, with plans to reuse spare satellite parts to accelerate deployment. Even with this satellite program addition, the budget does terminate contracts for ocean color, atmospheric composition and advanced lightning mapper instruments.
According to Bateman, these existing services are still in use for hurricane and storm tracking:
GOES and other Earth-observing satellites
Polar-orbiting satellites, including Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) and EUMETSAT MetOp
Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and other aircraft-based observations
Observations on the ground and from buoys
Radiosondes and supplemental upper air soundings
Ground-based weather radar sites
“In particular, the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder, currently flying on NOAA’s Joint Polar Satellite System, provides the richest, most accurate satellite weather observations available,” Bateman wrote.
This story was originally published July 24, 2025 at 6:00 AM.
