NOAA releases hurricane season forecast for 2026. Here’s what Hilton Head can expect
Hilton Head may see a slow hurricane season this year if predictions hold true.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration revealed its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday. Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
It’s only 10 days away. No storms are currently on the horizon, but here’s how many could be coming:
Hurricane season outlook
NOAA predicts a 55% chance of a below normal hurricane season. There’s still a chance of a normal or above average one, however. NOAA gives a 35% chance of near normal and 10% chance of above normal.
It predicts eight to 14 named storms. Named storms are storms that reach tropical storm strength, or 39 mph winds or greater. Three to six storms are predicted to reach hurricane strength, and one to three of major hurricane strength. A hurricane of category three or greater strength is a major hurricane.
The outlook suggests hurricane season will be less busy than those of the last two years. 2024 and 2025 were predicted to have above normal hurricane seasons by NOAA. Hurricanes will likely occur, just fewer than in recent memory.
Why below normal?
The main factor is El Niño. There’s a 98% chance of an El Niño forming this year, and an 80% chance of it becoming moderate to strong, NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said at the outlook’s press conference. El Niños form in the Pacific Ocean, but have effects on Atlantic Ocean weather.
El Niños create vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, a force that suppresses hurricane formation, Jacobs said. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters will still be warm enough to support hurricane formation. Hurricanes need sea temperature of 80 degrees or greater to form.
Hurricane preparedness
NOAA’s hurricane season outlooks can’t predict when or where a hurricane will form. Hurricanes can form and intensify quickly. And once they do, prep time is limited.
“Looking back in time at our records, every category five that’s made landfall in this country is a tropical storm or less three days out,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. “You may think you might have a week on your timeline, the reality is you may only have days.”
Here are some resources to help you prepare:
- The National Hurricane Center provides regular updates on potential and current hurricanes.
- The National Weather Service provides safety and preparedness information here.
- NOAA’s hurricane season outlook will update in August, just before the peak of hurricane season.
This story was originally published May 21, 2026 at 1:34 PM.