Chances of Super El Niño hitting Hilton Head growing. Here’s what weather to expect, and when

As summer heats up in Hilton Head, a potential super El Niño threatens to bring severe weather to the forecast.

Meteorologists from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration predict Hilton Head’s summer, fall and winter will be affected by El Niño. Forecasts suggest it could become the strongest in years.

Here’s what you need to know to prepare for 2026’s El Niño:

What is El Niño?

The air and sea temperatures of the Pacific Ocean fluctuate regularly every two to seven years. El Niño is the warming period, while its opposite, La Niña, is the cooling period.

The Pacific Jet Stream, which blows West to East across North America, moves southward during El Niño. This translates to more rain for the Southeast.

El Niño reaches peak strength during North America’s colder months, when the Southern Hemisphere experiences summer. It can last for nine to 18 months.

What’s in store for Hilton Head

The El Niño has an 84% chance to form before the end of July, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. It gives a 96% chance of El Niño lasting through the end of February 2027. The El Niño is predicted to reach peak strength between October and February.

Although El Niño occurs in the Pacific, it has major effects on the Atlantic Ocean’s climate. Hilton Head could see above-average rainfall after El Niño forms. Its strength will determine just how much rain falls. Flooding can occur in prone areas, such as low-lying and ocean-front locations.

Extreme temperatures may persist throughout the summer. El Niño conditions tend to generate extreme temperatures, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.

High-tide flooding is also predicted to increase during El Niño. These floods are more likely to occur during full or new moons, when tides vary the most, according to the National Ocean Service. High tide flooding can happen on days with no rainfall.

The 2026 El Niño may decrease chances of seeing a hurricane. El Niño events are known to suppress the formation of hurricanes due to wind shear. Wind shear is an upper atmosphere wind that tears apart forming tropical storms and hurricanes. But hurricanes do occur during El Niño, even major ones.

The effects won’t only be felt this summer. They can last as long as the El Niño persists.

Resources

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives updates on the timing and severity of El Niño.
• The National Weather Service provides free weather forecasts here.
• NOAA provides high tide flooding forecasts here.
• The National Weather Service’s safety tips for severe weather can be found here.