Another Christian McCaffrey injury? Panthers should put him on the shelf to be safe
Christian McCaffrey will miss his eighth game of the season Sunday when the Panthers host the Detroit Lions.
That will be the Panthers’ 11th game, and McCaffrey has missed 73 percent of them. First, it was a high ankle sprain against Tampa Bay that caused him to miss six straight games from Weeks 3 to 8. Then, it was an AC joint injury in his shoulder late in the Kansas City game Nov. 8th that has cost him two more games and counting.
Carolina should shut McCaffrey down for the rest of the season, too.
McCaffrey undoubtedly won’t want to do that, because he would consider that personally throwing in the towel on the final five games of the year. He loves to compete and would need to be talked into this — and McCaffrey has reached the stage of his career where he should have some say in the decision.
The Panthers have made no indication that they would do it, either, and in fact are saying the opposite: That as soon as McCaffrey is healthy, he will be on the field again.
But let’s be realistic and think about the long-term risk vs. reward here. The Panthers (3-7) have lost five games in a row and are in last place in the NFC South. While not technically eliminated from the playoff race, they would likely need to go at least 5-1 over their final six to have even a small shot at a wild-card spot. And they still have Green Bay and New Orleans on the schedule.
What is the upside if McCaffrey plays?
Carolina would field a better offense and might end up 6-10 instead of 4-12. McCaffrey — who has scored six touchdowns in the three games in which he has played — would score a few more of them. Fantasy footballers with McCaffrey on their team would be happy. McCaffrey would show his teammates once again how tough he is and how much they mean to him (although they know that already).
And that’s about it.
On the other hand, there’s a laundry list of reasons not to play No. 22:
▪ Most importantly, McCaffrey might get hurt again, re-injuring either his shoulder or his ankle or doing something else, and jeopardize the 2021 season, too, when the Panthers really need him.
▪ If he played, the Panthers would still miss the playoffs but would likely win just enough games to end up with, say, the 11th pick in the first round of the 2021 NFL draft instead of the fifth. Some years that can be a huge difference in quality of player.
▪ Only 24, McCaffrey signed a contract extension in April that made him the NFL’s most highly paid running back ever. That deal runs through the 2025 season, and it was still the right move to extend him when you’re thinking long term. You have to have a few stars, and McCaffrey was an All-Pro at two positions in 2019 and had never missed a game in his first three years.
But the Panthers need to think of the next five seasons — when ideally they will be competing for playoff spots and still employing McCaffrey — and not the next five games. I know everyone wants to win, and that’s what every NFL locker room is pointed toward doing. But this is not much more than a glorified practice season for Carolina, one in which head coach Matt Rhule and his staff are only beginning to remake the roster the way they want.
▪ Mike Davis is doing just fine in the role of lead running back, and his backups aren’t bad, either. Davis is unsigned for 2021, and the Panthers do need to figure out who McCaffrey’s backup for that season should be.
▪ McCaffrey would get an entire offseason to finish rehabbing his two separate injuries, ensuring an injury-free and on-time return in 2021.
The bottom line is that erring on the very safe side with your franchise running back is the right thing to do.
For his part, Rhule has been careful predicting when and if McCaffrey will return in 2020.
“I don’t know if it will be this week, I don’t know if it will be next week,” Rhule said Wednesday. “I think it’s just one of those things where nobody knows their body better than Christian, and whenever he feels like he can go, and the doctors feel he can go, we’ll be ready.”
It won’t be this week for sure. But it shouldn’t be next week, either — when McCaffrey very well may play in a game at Minnesota — or the one after that.
To McCaffrey and to the Panthers, the future is much more important than the present. Preserve it. As hard as it will be to do for everyone involved, it’s time to put McCaffrey on the shelf.
This story was originally published November 22, 2020 at 7:00 AM with the headline "Another Christian McCaffrey injury? Panthers should put him on the shelf to be safe."
