The Panthers will target offensive line and safety help in free agency. Who can they afford?
.JPG "Carolina Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer speaks during a press conference at the NFL football scouting combine in Indianapolis, Wednesday, March 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)")
Hold your Twitter devices close. Keep your TVs on and prepare for anything. Things are about to get even more transactional in the NFL.
On Monday at noon, the NFL’s legal tampering period begins. Teams can begin negotiating with free agents before the new league year begins on March 16.
In layman’s terms, free agency is here.
The league has already had a wild offseason. Aaron Rodgers agreed to a contract extension with the Packers that will make him the highest-paid player in football. Seattle traded their franchise’s greatest player, quarterback Russell Wilson, to Denver for an allotment of young players and high picks. The Colts dealt Carson Wentz to Washington, and Khali Mack is leaving Chicago for the Chargers.
Then Deshaun Watson re-entered the mix.
On Friday, a Houston grand jury decided not to charge Watson with any crimes. He was facing 10 criminal complaints alleging sexual misconduct and sexual assault during massage sessions. Watson is still facing 22 different civil cases and could be punished by the NFL under its personal conduct policy. The league is conducting its own investigation.
Expect the Panthers to aggressively pursue Watson while also surveying the free-agent market for a veteran quarterback. But Carolina may slow play the quarterback market while they wait for a Watson trade to develop. Conversely, the Panthers will be active players in the offensive guard and safety market.
Carolina has about $29 million in cap space according to overthecap.com. Recent contract restructures of tackle Taylor Moton and linebacker Shaq Thompson more than doubled the team’s cap space. But not all that cash is for free agency. The Panthers plan on saving about $10 million for in-season moves and another $6 million for rookie contracts after the draft, leaving about $13 million available for free agents.
That is not a lot but Carolina ranks 12th in cap space and should be able to land a proven starter or two. Here is a preview of free agents the Panthers should consider come Monday.
Guards
A quick way for a general manager to set their team back is overpaying for premium players at premium positions. The Giants are a recent example of how not to attack free agency.
Panthers fans should not worry about Carolina making any drastic mistakes this week. General manager Scott Fitterer, assistant general manager Dan Morgan vice president of player personnel Pat Stewart and vice president of football administration Samir Suleiman are proven decision-makers. Plus, the Panthers are not targeting marquee players. Instead, the team is hopeful they’ll land a starting guard at an affordable number.
Brandon Scherff is the top guard available. But according to a former NFL executive who spoke to The Observer for this story, Scherff will command “more than $15 million” per year, pricing him out of the Panthers budget.
Other guards who will likely prove too expensive for Carolina include James Daniels (Bears), Laken Tomlinson (49ers), and Alex Cappa (Bucs). But there are still quality guards available. Here are some names to watch.
Austin Corbett
▪ Former team: Rams
▪ Projected contract: $8.5 million APY, $10 million guaranteed
Corbett remade his career in Los Angeles after the Browns drafted him No. 33 in the 2018 NFL draft. Deemed a bust, Corbett benefited from the Rams wide-zone running scheme. According to Pro Football Focus, Corbett graded above the 50th percentile among all guards in zone and gap rushing schemes last season. He has refined his pass-blocking technique and has taken great care of his body.
At only 26 years old, Corbett could still be entering his prime. The Panthers want to become a powerful downhill running team under new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. Corbett fits that description.
Connor Williams
▪ Former team: Cowboys
▪ Projected contract: $6.5 million APY, $12 million guaranteed
Williams has had back-to-back seasons as a top-12 guard according to PFF’s wins above replacement metric. He is coming off an underwhelming 2021 season. His league-high 11 holding penalties are a large reason Dallas is moving on.
But Williams started 51 games for one of the best offensive lines since 2018. Plus, at just 24 years old, he is entering his prime. Last season, he allowed one sack on 569 pass-blocking snaps and 13 total pressures.
Carolina likes guard Michael Jordan and are not ready to move on from rookie Deonte Brown but Williams would be a major upgrade.
Other possibilities: Andrew Norwell (Jaguars), Quinton Spain (Bengals), Mark Glowinski (Colts), Trai Turner (Steelers)
Safeties
It’s unlikely the Panthers bring safety Juston Burris, which leaves them searching for a traditional deep safety to pair with Jeremy Chinn. There are some available. Standout Tyrann Mathieu (Chiefs) will command another lucrative contract. He’ll be too expensive for Carolina, according to a well-placed source.
Other safeties who the Panthers likely cannot afford include Marcus Williams (Saints) and Quandre Diggs (Seahawks).
Marcus Maye
▪ Former team: Jets
▪ Projected contract: $5.5 million APY, $4 million guaranteed
Maye nearly landed a lucrative multi-year deal from New York after the Jets traded safety Jamal Adams to Seattle two seasons ago. In an expanded role, Maye proved he was capable of playing deep center field or closer to the line of scrimmage. Then he tore his Achilles in November, sending his offseason value into a tailspin.
Maye was limited to six starts last season and did not produce much behind a stale Jets’ defense. In his five years in the league, Maye has registered 312 tackles and six interceptions. In 2020, PFF rated Maye as their No. 4 safety with a season grade of 82.9.
Anthony Harris
▪ Former team: Eagles
▪ Projected contract: $3.5 million APY, $3.5 million guaranteed
Like Maye, Harris nearly landed a massive deal from the Vikings two seasons ago. His six interceptions led the league in 2019. But he’s had one interception in 30 starts since.
There is value in Carolina targeting once-elite safeties like Harris and Maye. They are available for a reason. But for cheap-starter money, the Panthers can land a proven starter with legitimate upside.
Harris was PFF’s No. 1 ranked safety following the 2019 season.
Other possibilities: Xavier Woods (Vikings), Devin McCourty (Patriots), Kareem Jackson (Broncos)
Quarterbacks
Carolina likely will not spend on a quarterback until it is certain Watson won’t waive his no-trade clause. By then, the free-agent quarterback market may evaporate. It’s also unlikely the Panthers would have the cap space available to sign a veteran listed below, draft a first-round quarterback and still have Sam Darnold on the roster.
Regardless, here are the quarterbacks the Panthers are closely motioning during free agency.
Marcus Mariota
▪ Former team: Raiders
▪ Projected contract: $8 million APY, $12 million guaranteed
Mariota is poised for a starting opportunity after backing up Derek Carr up for several seasons. He’d be relatively inexpensive compared to Jameis Winston or Mitchell Trubisky.
“You could do a lot worse than Marcus Mariota at quarterback,” Draft Network’s Bryan Perez told The Observer. “He’s a really good bridge quarterback, especially if the Panthers are leaning toward a Malik Willis-type.”
Pairing Mariota with Willis makes sense. Unfortunately, Carolina does not have the cap room available because of Darnold’s nearly $19 million guaranteed salary. A league executive told The Observer that Carolina will have a difficult — if not impossible — time trading Darnold.
Mitchell Trubisky
▪ Former team: Bills
▪ Projected contract: $10 million APY, $10 million guaranteed
Earlier in the offseason, the Panthers were hopeful Trubisky and Mariota would be available for under $10 million per season. That expectation changed after the combine.
An NFL coach told The Observer that it’s believed Trubisky successfully remade himself backing up Josh Allen in Buffalo. That sounds too good to be true. But if he starts next season and does well then a team will have landed an athletic starting quarterback for cheap.
That’s exactly what the Panthers need if they do not acquire Watson. However, Trubisky will likely cost too much for Carolina.
Other possibilities: Jameis Winston (Saints), Cam Newton (Panthers), Andy Dalton (Bears), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Washington)
This story was originally published March 13, 2022 at 6:00 AM with the headline "The Panthers will target offensive line and safety help in free agency. Who can they afford?."
