Panthers mailbag: Is Deshaun Watson coming to Carolina? What’s up in NFL free agency?
There’s rarely a dull moment in the NFL, and that was never more clear than this past week, after all the quarterback news that happened.
Aaron Rodgers is staying in Green Bay. Russell Wilson was traded to Denver. Carson Wentz was traded to Washington. And soon, Deshaun Watson could be on the move.
That’s what most of this week’s questions for this Panthers mailbag centered on, and understandably so. Free agency also begins early next week. The NFL’s legal tampering period begins on Monday at noon.
You had some questions and we have some answers:
Will G asks. 3 top targets for Panthers via free agency?
Ellis L. Williams: Expect the Panthers to prioritize offensive guard, safety and quarterback in free agency. There are offensive tackles they will monitor, but that market will likely be too expensive.
For guards, Brandon Scherff sits atop the market. At 30 years old, he still has several seasons of quality football ahead. According to Pro Football Focus, Scherff should command $30 million guaranteed and about $50 total on a three-year deal. That may be too expensive for Carolina. Other guards to watch are James Daniels (Bears), Quinton Spain (Bengals) and Austin Corbett (Rams).
At safety there are three or four quality starting options. The Bengals placed the franchise tag on Jessie Bates or he would’ve been the top safety on the market. Tyrann Mathieu (Chiefs), Marcus Williams (Saints) and Quandre Diggs (Seahawks) are other names to watch.
The Panthers do not want to pay more than $10 million for a veteran quarterback, if they decide to acquire one via free agency. The top options are Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston.
Simo Im asks: Seeing what the Seahawks got for (Russell) Wilson, how much a trade for (Deshaun) Watson would cost the Panthers in your opinion ?
JMA: Now that the Russell Wilson trade has happened, we finally have a precedent. In exchange for Wilson and a fourth round pick, the Seahawks got two first-round picks, two second round picks, a fifth round pick, a young quarterback in Drew Lock, a 24-year-old talented tight end in Noah Fant, and a defensive lineman in Shelby Harris.
I think a trade for Watson will be similar. What I know is that in October, the Texans wanted at least six draft picks from the Panthers, including three first-rounders.
So they’ll likely want a similar package.
My guess would be three first-round picks (2022, 2023, 2024), a future third- or fourth-round pick and a couple of young core players, perhaps Brian Burns or Jeremy Chinn or Derrick Brown.
Watson is still only 26, so he’s in his prime, and could theoretically play for at least 10 more years, driving up the price. Then you also factor in that quarterback is the most important position, and the Panthers are desperate.
Whatever the trade package is, it’ll be historic.
@Jayy70196988 asks Do you think we’ll get (Deshaun) Watson?
JMA: While I certainly appreciate the question and understand it, it’s an impossible question to answer at this point. Watson’s legal troubles haven’t been resolved and teams probably won’t know more until after the Harris County district attorney’s office presents its criminal case to the grand jury, which begins on Friday.
For all we know, the grand jury could decide to indict Watson. More could come out. Or the grand jury could decide not to indict him. The Panthers are still monitoring the situation and likely won’t go after him if more troubling news comes out. I detailed this in Thursday night’s story.
Other teams will also factor into whether Carolina can get a deal done. Who will offer the best package?
Will Watson waive his no-trade clause to go to Carolina? There are a lot of unknown factors involved in this.
As of right now, I don’t know if Carolina will land him. What I do know is the Panthers will try to acquire Watson for the right deal and under the right circumstances, if he is cleared on the criminal side.
EZ Kool asks: How do you feel about resigning Cam Newton and drafting Willis if we get a few quality lineman via FA?
ELW: Cam Newton returning (again) to the Panthers followed by Carolina drafting Malik Willis would make a worthwhile story.
Willis and Newton are both alumni of Westlake High School near Atlanta. Willis played on Newton’s hometown seven-on-seven teams growing up and leaned on Newton consistently for advice.
“He always gave me little nuggets of information that I could keep with me for the rest of my life,” Willis said at the combine. “He’s definitely been a big part of that.”
But the storybook ends there.
Carolina landing one of either Willis or Newton would surprise me. Having both in Charlotte would be shocking. There is a path to the Panthers selecting Willis in the draft. Several NFL scouts I’ve talked to do not believe Willis is a Day 1 starter. That is reason enough for Carolina to pair Willis with a veteran, which in theory could be Newton. However, the Panthers would have to offload Sam Darnold’s nearly $19 million contract for that to work.
Pairing Willis and Newton likely won’t happen. Free agent quarterbacks Marcus Mariota and Mitchell Trubisky are generating more attention than Newton. But the quarterback market is thinning by the day. Aaron Rodgers is staying in Green Bay. Russell Wilson was traded to Denver and the Colts dealt Carson Wentz to the Commanders.
If Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr stay put — and the Panthers don’t sign Mariota or Trubisky — then Newton could be their best (and last) choice.
Will T asks: Any more restructures in the future?
ELW: Carolina already restructured tackle Taylor Moton and linebacker Shaq Thompson, adding about $16 million in cap space. The additional $5 million they created by restructuring Thompson puts their cap at about $29 million.
That sounds like a lot, but it is not considering Carolina will keep about $10 million available for in-season moves and about $6 million for rookie contracts after the draft. Carolina would benefit in the short term from another restructure.
Pat Elflein, Robby Anderson and Christian McCaffrey are restructure candidates due to their large 2022 cap hits. However, it is unlikely the Panthers rework any of those deals.
Carolina already restructured McCaffrey last season. Doing so in back-to-back off-seasons would create an even longer term commitment to the often hurt running back. The same logic applies to Elflein and Anderson. Carolina would rather move off those deals sooner than add additional seasons.
The Panthers are likely headed into free agency with about $29 million available.
Carolina Can... asks: Has Paradis been released? I’ve seen his cap charged as if he were gone. Then I saw his name on the Panthers roster?
JMA: Paradis wasn’t released. But on March 16, he will become an unrestricted free agent as his contract expires. That’s why his cap charges are gone.
And it’s understood that the Panthers don’t have any plans to re-sign him.
Paradis ended the 2021 season on the injured reserve after tearing his ACL. He’ll be 33 years old next season, would likely still be somewhat pricey, compared to what Carolina would want to spend.
Pat Elflein is expected to take over at center next season.
This story was originally published March 11, 2022 at 1:56 PM with the headline "Panthers mailbag: Is Deshaun Watson coming to Carolina? What’s up in NFL free agency?."
