Predicting the Panthers’ record in 2021: Brace yourself for a bumpy (but fun) season
The two months before an NFL season begins is filled with a lot of walking from one place to another for players and coaches. Locker room to practice field. Drill to drill. Weight room to training room to equipment room.
It’s a bit of a slog, and it’s hard to see more than a couple of steps in front of you. The preseason games come and go, with the results forgotten almost the minute the scoreboard winks out. It’s easy to lose sight of the larger picture, because teams and their fans are on the ground level, getting through the day-to-day of padded practices or NFL fantasy drafts.
This prediction column in early September is always one of my favorite columns to write each season. First of all, I get to view the Panthers from 30,000 feet rather than three feet, metaphorically flying instead of walking. Second of all, it means the weather is about to turn cool and the real games are about to begin.
I’ll put my pick for the Panthers’ 2021 record at the very end of this column. If you’re in a hurry, skip right to that sentence if you want to see it. I don’t mind.
Still with me? Then let’s talk for a moment about some recent history and the reasoning for the pick.
I began this same column a year ago with a headline that started “The Panthers won’t be bad enough to draft Trevor Lawrence.” And they weren’t. I picked the Panthers to go 4-12 in 2020. They ended up 5-11. And they indeed won too much to seriously challenge for the No. 1 pick, which Jacksonville used on former Clemson QB Lawrence.
The 2021 Panthers have instead tried to solve their quarterback problem by trading for Sam Darnold, who replaced Teddy Bridgewater, who replaced Kyle Allen, who replaced Cam Newton, all in the past two years.
Darnold hopes to halt the Carolina QB carousel by proving himself in a way he never consistently did with the New York Jets, who employed him for three years before trading him away. It was no wonder they did so. In those three years with the Jets, Darnold had 45 TD passes and 46 turnovers (39 interceptions, seven lost fumbles). That is, to put it mildly, not great.
Carolina is convinced that Darnold, who’s somehow still just 24 years old, has potential as a reclamation project worthy of HGTV. He will have a better chance to pay off if star running back Christian McCaffrey stays healthy. On a team with few players who would be recognized outside of the Carolinas with their helmets off, CMC is an exception. He’s a headliner who Carolina wants to get 25 touches per game. (All the fantasy football owners who picked him No. 1 overall hope it will be 35.)
But the Panthers and second-year head coach Matt Rhule have treated McCaffrey like a Ming vase in the preseason, not playing him a single snap in exhibitions after he missed 13 of a potential 16 games in 2020 with three different injuries. They are saving all the hits he will take for the regular season.
The offensive line could be a major trouble spot, and you could cut and paste that sentence into the last eight Panther previews in a row. The wide receivers are a top-10 unit. The defense should be better, with Jeremy Chinn as a big plus. Carolina will also be helped by not having to face the retired Drew Brees twice a year anymore vs. New Orleans.
Outside linebacker Haason Reddick and tight end Dan Arnold will battle it out to be the best new free agent on the team. Cornerback Jaycee Horn and wide receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. will contend for the role of best rookie. Kicker Ryan Santoso just got here, but he’s probably going to decide a couple of games before it’s over.
As with every season, much depends on the quarterback. Carolina’s schedule is back-loaded, so the Panthers need to make hay early, starting with the “Sam Darnold Revenge Game” in the season opener in Charlotte vs. the Jets on Sunday.
Carolina has a bit of playoff potential this season, partly because the NFC South is down except for defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay. But lots of things have to go right — QB play, team health because the overall depth isn’t good and double-digit sacks for Brian Burns, or Reddick or both. More likely, the Panthers feel like an improved team that isn’t quite there yet.
I’d be happy to be wrong on this one: It’s been a long time since I’ve covered a consistent winner at Bank of America Stadium. But while I’m picking the Panthers to win more than they did in 2020, it’s not by much.
Brace yourself, because this season will be bumpy. Fun, but bumpy.
Bottom line: The 2021 Panthers’ final record will be 8-9.
This story was originally published September 8, 2021 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Predicting the Panthers’ record in 2021: Brace yourself for a bumpy (but fun) season."
