Panthers midseason eval: Missing McCaffrey, but they can build future around this player
The day after the Panthers lost 25-17 to the Atlanta Falcons, head coach Matt Rhule was asked about teaching his program how to win. Can that actually be taught or does it come from experience?
Rhule pointed out there can be a lot of narratives to come from games like Thursday’s defeat. The five rookies that started on defense, the third-down penalties, the offense’s inability to get the play-makers consistently involved, the injuries ...
“It’s really not that, and it’s really not even at the end of the game. It’s why are you in that position,” Rhule said. “Part of learning how to win is an understanding that it’s just not the last drive. It’s all these other opportunities throughout the game that you have a chance to make plays that can win the game before you even get there.”
The Panthers have the latest bye week in the NFL this season — Week 13 — and trips to Kansas City and Green Bay, along with hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints, remain on the list of eight games to come.
But as with assessing what went wrong in a single game, not just a couple of choice stats can give the whole picture. Carolina’s 3-5 record doesn’t detail all of the takeaways from the first half of the year, although Rhule would argue it is a pretty good place to start.
“We’re a 3-5 team. I think losers always point to other things,” Rhule said. “There’s 1-6 teams that are saying boy we could have done X, Y and Z. There’s 5-1 teams that could have lost (some of) those games. I mean, I think Bill Parcells said it best: ‘You are what your record says you are.’ ”
Here are some takeaways from that 3-5 start:
Teddy Bridgewater’s rollercoaster start
There have been moments throughout the first eight games of the season that Bridgewater has just gone on a roll. Against the Saints in Week 7, he completed 23 of 28 passes (82.1%) for 254 yards and two touchdowns. At one point this season, he led the league in completion percentage, although that was short lived (he enters Sunday ranked third at 71.6%).
Bridgewater has gotten off to a solid start with both receivers Robby Anderson and DJ Moore. Anderson is second in the NFL in receiving yards (688) and Moore is fourth (622). He’s gotten in a groove with receiver Curtis Samuel, on third down especially. Samuel leads all players with 16 third-down receptions and has 12 receiving first-down conversions — most in the NFL.
There’s rhythm. There are times when the offense looks unstoppable and the potential of what this group could be when running back Christian McCaffrey’s return could make the offense just that much more fun to watch.
But Bridgewater’s late-game woes have been costly. It’s far from all on him. He barely had any time to get the pass off during the eventual game-deciding sack in Week 7 at New Orleans. Bridgewater’s protection has been up and down as injuries have bit the line. The Panthers decided to rotate backup left tackle Greg Little out after he gave up multiple pressures during the Week 8 loss to the Falcons.
“Just gave up a couple pressures and went with Trent (Scott),” Rhule said. “That being said, he’s not the only guy that gave up pressures. Sometimes, your left tackle just stands out a little bit more.
In two of the last three games, the losses to the Bears and Falcons, Bridgewater threw game-ending interceptions. He’s tied for the league lead with three fourth-quarter interceptions, but also has dealt with pressure and little time to throw the football. There have been moments when Bridgewater made questionable decisions and other times when he has made throws that are highlight-reel worthy — such as the beautiful flea-flicker touchdown pass to Samuel on Thursday.
Late-game drives remain an issue and decision-making needs to be improved, but accuracy and ability to throw the ball downfield, something that was questioned in the preseason, have been among the positives. Bridgewater needs to improve in the second half of the season, but the moments where he has shined can’t be ignored.
Christian McCaffrey’s injury
Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady laid it out in June:
“Christian is one of the pieces that definitely is going to be the true driving force of our offense,” he said.
Brady and Rhule were vocalizing the importance of the NFL’s highest-paid running back in the offense for months leading up to the season. The offense was supposed to be built around him. There’s a reason the team gave him a four-year extension in the offseason worth $64 million that has him under contract with the Panthers through 2025.
When McCaffrey suffered a high ankle sprain in the Week 2 loss to the Buccaneers, Carolina’s offense seemed set up to struggle.
Instead, Mike Davis more than rose to the occasion as his backup. But after a three-game winning streak in which Davis stood out, a three-game losing streak has followed. When McCaffrey likely makes his return in the days to come, he will come back to an offense that has struggled to put complete games together and has not come together quickly.
It’s hard to say if the Panthers would be in a much different place if McCaffrey hadn’t gotten hurt. It doesn’t matter. Losing the team’s best player and an offensive captain for six-plus games has good and bad consequences, and it has defined the first half of the season.
Maybe the Panthers would have been in a different place with him playing, but he couldn’t fix all of their issues.
Jeremy Chinn looks like the Panthers’ future
The Panthers made history when they selected seven defensive players in the 2020 NFL draft. Six of the seven are on the active roster after defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos was placed on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain, and the team is hopeful to get him back this year.
First-round defensive tackle Derrick Brown has been solid and playing well after taking two games to get comfortable in the defense. Brown leads the team in tackles for loss (6) and stuffs (5).
Cornerback Troy Pride Jr. has been forced into extra playing time due to the injures at cornerback and is learning as he goes.
But safety Jeremy Chinn, who the Panthers moved up in the second-round to take, has been the standout of the draft class. He leads the Panthers in total tackles (67). Chinn, out of Southern Illinois, plays all over the field and is far more than a safety, oftentimes playing more of a linebacker role.
Through the first eight games of a Panther rookie season, only linebacker Luke Kuechly has ever had more tackles.
Chinn has had two NFL carries on fake punts, including rushing for a first down vs. the Falcons in Week 8. He is someone that Rhule is going to want to build his program around. Many players have spoken on him being a player others look too.
Not bad for a rookie.
“Jeremy Chinn is the real deal Holyfield. And what I love about him is just his high energy. The guy plays 110 mph each and every play,” safety Tre Boston said in October. “He has what you call those young fresh legs, and he’s able to use them and he’s not afraid to hit, he can do just about everything. Shout out to his parents. He’s a freak of nature. He’s one of those guys who is built like a safety/linebacker/can do it all.”
This draft class will likely be remembered for some time, but Chinn’s efforts have been impossible to ignore if you watch this team. He and Brown have already shown plenty of promise.
We could go on about the defense’s inability to get off the field on third downs and other defensive issues, but injuries have been more costly on the defensive side of the ball, especially defensive tackle Kawann Short being out for the season. It is hard to judge a young defense that is developing after only eight games. Brian Burns has certainly still gotten off to a strong start. Coordinator Phil Snow has done well, considering the circumstances.
Evaluating the Panthers’ coaching
In the second half of games this season, the Panthers are averaging just 8.5 points per game. Only the Jets (6.6) average fewer.
In four of the five losses this season, the Panthers’ offense has had a chance to tie or win a game within the last five minutes but have been unable to capitalize. The three wins Carolina has have come from offensive success early and then doing enough on defense to come away with a victory. (The Panthers have scored 3 second-half points in two of their three wins.)
Play calling in the second half and decision making has been a major factor, and those issues have also appeared on fourth down. Rhule has shown a disposition for going for it on fourth down, where the Panthers are 5 for 10 on the season. Some of the fourth-down play calling, going all the way back to the first game of the season, hasn’t been wise. But there have been issues that go beyond the plays.
“We don’t always do exactly what we should do at the right moment, we sometimes improvise too much,” Rhule said. “That’s all a part of growing. I think every week, we’re trying to improve. Every week, we’re trying to get better.”
Improvising decisions by the players, or not doing what they have been coached to do, have led to mistakes. And that’s something that is hard for an outsider to see, but something that will continue to be improved.
Only two games this year — a win and a loss — have been decided by more than one score. The Panthers haven’t show an ability to close out games or take advantage of opportunities to keep drives alive. Learning from those moments should be a priority.
What’s next for the Panthers
Carolina is being built in Rhule’s vision.
Cornerback Eli Apple told coaches Tuesday he was unable to practice and was released that afternoon; he only played defensive snaps in one game this year. Compare that to cornerback Donte Jackson, who had an interception of Matt Ryan on Thursday night while playing through turf toe, whom Rhule has praised for playing through injuries often. Despite needed depth at corner with Rasul Douglas on the COVID-19 list, the Panthers decided to let Apple go. Message sent. The Panthers are building this team with certain types of players in mind.
The team is hoping to get several players back from injury soon. Young players will continue to develop. The team’s overall improvement will be a priority for the last eight games.
“I want to be a team that’s a better team in the second half of the season than we were in the first half. We’ll get a lot of guys back ... But one of the things that’s happened with some of the injuries and COVID things is, we’ve had a chance to see some other guys play. We’re out there last night. (Rookie cornerback) Stantley Thomas Oliver went from being inactive to being a guy on the punt team to covering Julio Jones last night. And you know what, he’ll be much better for it,” Rhule said.
“There’s things we have to improve upon, if we do then, last night as painful as (Thursday night vs. the Falcons) was, will be something positive moving forward.”
It will be a second half worth watching, for more reasons than one.
This story was originally published October 31, 2020 at 7:00 AM with the headline "Panthers midseason eval: Missing McCaffrey, but they can build future around this player."
