Why the Panthers run defense has been so bad this season. (Hint: it’s not just the 3-4)
It’s no secret the Carolina’s run defense has had its issues this season.
The Panthers allowed Packers running back Aaron Jones to rush for 93 yards and three touchdowns on only 13 carries. Todd Gurley rushed for a season-high 97 yards in Week 1. And they were gashed for 232 yards in the blowout loss to the 49ers.
But how bad has the Panthers’ run defense actually been in comparison to the rest of the league?
Over the last three weeks, the Panthers have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (172, behind the Patriots). They have also given up 10 rushing touchdowns over that stretch alone, the most in the NFL.
Granted, the loss to San Francisco will impact any of their numbers against the run. But that game doesn’t explain everything away.
“I think every team is going to try and run the ball on you, because it sets up play action,” safety Eric Reid said. “If you can get the linebackers to come downhill and throw it right behind them, it’s easy plays. The formula is the same for every team. It’s just how you scheme it up and if you can stop it, or if you can be successful at doing it.”
So far, the biggest issue for the Panthers has been giving up big-yardage plays on the ground, which coach Ron Rivera pointed out.
“I’ve said the biggest problem I’ve had is that we’ve given chunk yards. You would be more concerned if it was a consistent five yards at a time, but when you give up chunk yards, it throws your average completely off,” Rivera said. “The biggest thing we have going is getting to not feel like we make all the plays. Stay on our gaps and play our gaps and not allow that. We’ve missed some tackles, we’ve been out of our gaps, but we’ve got the players who can make those plays.”
Carolina has allowed the second-most rushing plays of 10-plus and 20-plus yards (behind Cincinnati) this season. They have allowed the most rushing touchdowns this year of 10-plus yards (seven) and the second-most 100-plus yard games this season (eight), second to the Cardinals.
There isn’t just one answer for why the Panthers are giving up this type of yardage.
It isn’t every game, as Rivera pointed out, and it is also most certainly not just one flaw. If either were the case, it’d be correctable. Instead, there are a variety of components contributing to the Panthers’ issues against the run, including missing tackles.
“It all starts with your fundamentals and sometimes it’s just different things. Just being in your gap because we are a gap-control defense, which means everyone is assigned to a specific gap or a specific area as it pertains to a run concept,” defensive coordinator Eric Washington said. “Some of it is fundamentals, how that individual is in position if he’s in his gap responsibility and some of its tackling … All it takes is one of those things to break down, and in this business, a back will exploit you.”
The Panthers’ defense had an impressive stretch from 2016 to early 2018 when they were dominant against the run. Over that stretch, Carolina did not allow a 100-yard rusher for 21 straight games. During that same period, they went 14-7 in the regular season, giving up an average of 4.1 yards per carry and 88.3 per game.
Since that record came to an end against the Falcons, who the Panthers play Sunday, they have gone 11-13, averaged 4.9 yards per carry against and have given up 122.5 rushing yards per game.
A lot was made this season of the Panthers moving from 4-3 to a 3-4 defense, but linebacker Luke Kuechly said that has nothing to do with the problems against the run that have surfaced specifically this season.
“I think people have made too big a deal of the 3-4 versus 4-3. Nickel and sub, everyone is trying to make a big deal because in the offseason, that’s what everyone wants to talk about,” Kuechly said. “I don’t think there’s a huge difference. Some of the stuff we’ve done now we’ve done in the past, so it hasn’t been that much different. I think it’s just when you tell everybody you’re going from a 4-3 to a 3-4, everyone like freaks out about it, but it’s not that much different.”
This season, the Panthers have been without defensive tackle Kawann Short after he was placed on injured reserve with a partially torn rotator cuff suffered in Week 2. They did not re-sign veteran Thomas Davis, who is now with the Los Angeles Chargers. Davis has more run stops this season than any Panthers player other than Kuechly, per Pro Football Focus.
While they are giving up big runs, the Panthers are also allowing the second-most rushing yards on first down this season (5.58), second to only the Browns.
The run defense especially has been troublesome of late because the Panthers have fallen behind in games. In three of their four losses, they have allowed six or more rushes of 10-plus yards. But they are 5-1 when they allow fewer than 150 yards, with the only exception being their Week 2 loss to the Buccaneers when Cam Newton was playing on his injured foot.
Carolina’s issues against the run aren’t caused by one thing and they can’t be seen in just one way. They’ll have a chance to show improvement this weekend against the Falcons, who have averaged just 76.8 rushing yards per game (29th).
Ironically, Brian Hill, who will likely be starting at running back for the Falcons on Sunday with Devonta Freeman suffering a foot injury, had his only career 100-yard game against the Panthers last year.
But the Falcons haven’t had a player rush for over 100 yards in a game this season. This game is no doubt an opportunity for the Panthers.
“Whether it’s allowing them the freedom to make a certain call or check to move a guy down or to move a gap of responsibility,” Rivera said,” we’ve got to make sure we’re also putting them in the position to have success.”
This story was originally published November 14, 2019 at 5:56 PM with the headline "Why the Panthers run defense has been so bad this season. (Hint: it’s not just the 3-4)."
