Only 1 driver has played ‘spoiler’ at NASCAR’s Roval race. Why that might change
AJ Allmendinger admitted that he’d never really thought about it.
Not the win. He’s thought about his NASCAR Cup Series win at the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course — the Roval, as it’s colloquially called — a lot.
It was the 2023 race. The one that marked the first time since 2014 that Allmendginer led the most laps in a Cup race. The one that signaled his first win since August 2021. The one that featured the kind of celebration that drivers dream for: of jumping on backs, of storming the grandstands, of talking through tears about the uncertainties that pervade a sport like racing: “You just don’t know when you’re going to do this again.”
But what Allmendinger hadn’t thought of is the fact that in the history of the Roval — the half-road course, half-oval that was brainstormed and ultimately implemented in 2018 — is he is the only non-playoff driver to win this Cup race.
Can such a phenomenon happen again this year?
And if it does, can Allmendinger be the one to do it?
“I take pride in the fact that when we show up to road courses, people are like, ‘You’re one of the guys to beat,’” Allmendinger told The Charlotte Observer earlier this week. “Obviously, now though, that’s SVG (Shane van Gisbergen) by a mile. But you know, I’ve only won three (Cup races).”
He then continued, specifically about the question about why playoff drivers win at the Roval more often than not:
“I don’t look at the playoff thing as anything.”
It’s true that FanDuel Sportsbook favors current playoff drivers as the most likely winners for the Roval, which will run at 3 p.m. Sunday on USA Network. Kyle Larson, who has won it twice and is still in the playoffs, is sitting with the third-best odds at +1,000. Christopher Bell, who notched a walk-off win in 2022, is sitting at second-best with +950. Tyler Reddick, who needs a close to perfect day to advance past this cutoff race, has the fourth-highest odds with +1300.
Still, the sportsbooks — and the rest of the sport, really — say there is a high possibility for a driver to play “spoiler.”
Among the spoiler candidates include Allmendinger, who not only won once at the Cup level in 2023 but also four straight times at the Xfinity Series level. He has the sixth-best odds of the field at +1400.
And that also includes Shane van Gisbergen.
SVG, as the whole sport calls him, has dominated road courses this year. He has four wins to his name this year; all had left and right turns. He dominated NASCAR’s venture to Mexico City. He added another Chicago Street Race win to his name. He won at Sonoma and then at Watkins Glen. The only non-road course race that SVG didn’t win is at COTA — and that was the second of three consecutive wins for an at-the-time red-hot Christopher Bell.
SVG has the highest odds by a lot: +100.
One guy who has come close to defeating SVG on a road course — 1.1 seconds close — is Chase Briscoe. He too is in the playoffs and 21 points ahead of the playoff cut-line. When asked if there is any possibility of a spoiler this year, and whether it is difficult for the Roval to be the venue for a non-playoff driver to shine, Briscoe shrugged.
“When you get to this time of year, the guys that are in the playoffs are there for a reason,” Briscoe said. “They’re usually the stronger guys. But I do think that this race more than any other opens it up to non-playoff guys, just because of how the strategy plays out.
“All the playoff guys are going to take points, and then they all restart that final stage in around 20-25th. So you have all those guys who aren’t in the playoff — they all know that, and they flip it, and they start in front of the playoff guys.
“So this race, I feel like is a little bit easier if you’re a non-playoff guy, just because of track position and whatnot. Hopefully, if we don’t win, hopefully that (idea) will play out, because that’s another spot that’s not getting taken by a winner.”
So Briscoe could find a way to be happy if Allmendinger wins, for instance. But Allmendinger has realistic hopes for this weekend’s race, he said.
“We’ve struggled on road courses. And I’m not even talking SVG,” Allmendinger said. “It’s been tough for us to even run in the Top 5. So the mindset, the ultimate goal of this weekend, is always to go win the race. If you don’t show up to go win the race, there’s no use to go to the racetrack. But my mindset this weekend is going out there and hopefully we run at practice well, and we qualify well, and I’d love to run in the Top 5 all day and be close enough to have a chance to win the race.
“It’s not an all-or-nothing thing because we’ve had so much success there. I don’t want to put that sort of pressure on us.”
I told him he’ll be reminded of this sentiment in Victory Lane if he ends up winning.
He laughed.
“If that happens, you’ll have to remind me while I’m partying,” he said. Probably somewhere in the stands, on a pit crew member’s back, doused in confetti and champagne like last time.
“So for sure,” he said. “Do that.”
This story was originally published October 3, 2025 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Only 1 driver has played ‘spoiler’ at NASCAR’s Roval race. Why that might change."
