Who will win the Daytona 500? Predictions and betting advice for NASCAR’s biggest race
The Daytona 500 is often labeled as “anyone’s race” — and it’s lived up to that billing a few times recently, no doubt.
Just look at the most recent 500 winners:
There was William Byron last year, a titan of the field. And before him, there were three straight underdogs: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., rookie Austin Cindric and longtime racer/first-time Cup winner Michael McDowell. And then, before them, Denny Hamlin won twice in a row.
Some view the unpredictability as a vice. Kyle Busch, for one, said the race was “80% luck and 20% skill” earlier this week. Others consider it a virtue — a tightrope walk for all drivers, no matter the equipment they’re in.
So to help you sort out all the possibilities for this year’s season-opening NASCAR Cup Series points race, here’s your day-of guide.
Quick race details
Catch the 2025 running of the Daytona 500 on FOX. You can also stream it on platforms like Hulu with Live TV and Fubo; valid subscriptions required. Televised coverage of the race begins at 11:30 a.m., and the green flag is set to drop just after 1:30 p.m. (The start time got moved up an hour thanks to the threat of rain.)
Fans can listen to it on the radio, too, via SiriusXM NASCAR Radio (Channel 90), the Motor Racing Network (MRN) or on the NASCAR mobile app.
This year will mark the largest purse in motorsports history: $30,331,250.
Top 10 driver odds to win Daytona 500
The Top 10 odds to win it all, via FanDuel as of Saturday evening: Kyle Larson (+1200), Ryan Blaney (+1300), Kyle Busch (+1300), Joey Logano (+1300), Denny Hamlin (+1400), Chase Elliott (+1700), Brad Keselowski (+1700), William Byron (+1700), Christopher Bell (+1800), Chris Buescher (+2100).
Observer writers make picks for Daytona 500
Shane Connuck: Ryan Blaney. It’s time for the Team Penske star to win the sport’s biggest race. Blaney, among the top Ford drivers on superspeedways, has recorded a Top 10 finish in five of the past eight Daytona 500s. The winner of a previous regular-season finale at the World Center of Racing, Blaney qualified well for Sunday with a strong starting position in P16, and the driver of the No. 12 car has a great shot to begin the Cup Series season in Victory Lane for the first time.
Scott Fowler: Joey Logano. I’ll go with the guy who has won two series championships over the past three years, even though his history at Daytona is, well, checkered. Logano won the Daytona 500 in 2015, but he also has crashed out there frequently, including in 2024. Still, everybody crashes at Daytona, right? Still only 34 although it seems like he’s been around forever, Logano remains in his prime and a serious threat every time he gets into a car.
Alex Zietlow: Kyle Larson. To be clear, this isn’t what my heart says. My heart longs for the best story, which is for Kyle Busch to win it all. And how great would that be? Picture it: The grizzled gunslinger, the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing, the spiritual successor to Dale Earnhardt in more ways than one — finding a way to win the big race that has eluded him through 20 starts. But that’s not how Sunday will go. Instead, Larson will win it behind the strength of Hendrick Motorsports, the New York Yankees of NASCAR — setting him up for another championship-contending Cup season and leaving all motorsport storytellers despondent, wondering what could’ve been. (A consolation prize for us? The Daytona 500 is one of the few races Larson hasn’t yet won, so at least we’ll be witnessing history.)
What other NASCAR experts think
Bob Pockrass, FOX Sports: Pockrass has Brad Keselowski winning it all. His rationale is good, too: Keselowski is in a Ford and is good at superspeedways, and RFK Racing now has a third car and a Haas Factory Team alliance. All positives.
Jordan Bianchi and Jeff Gluck, The Athletic: Gluck took Christopher Bell, citing the upped numbers of Toyotas on the road this year and Bell’s aptitude as an all-around racer. Bianchi picked Blaney because he’s due after coming so close to winning it previously.
Ken Willis and Chris Vinel, Daytona Beach News-Journal: The local newspaper not only does a wonderful job covering Speedweek, it also has writers who make prudent picks. Willis went with Hamlin, citing his status as a three-time winner, and Vinel took Blaney.
Other NASCAR Cup Series bets to keep an eye on
▪ FanDuel had Bubba Wallace at +340 to earn a Top 5 finish as of Saturday evening, which is pretty compelling. Wallace has never won at Daytona, but he’s come close, which includes a second-place finish in the 2022 Daytona 500. He’s also in some of the best equipment in the Cup Series, is a proven superspeedway racer and won the first Duel race Thursday, so everything indicates he’ll have a good weekend. He’s starting P3. So … will he win it all? Tough to say. So much has to go right, and his Toyota teammates will have to help him — and that’s been a hindrance as of late as Ford has dominated so many superspeedway races recently. But a Top 5? That seems as safe a bet as there is in NASCAR’s biggest race.
▪ DraftKings also has a race prop that caught my attention: Top Chevy. Take a look at those Alex Bowman odds (+1100). Now, I know that Chevy has a lot of good superspeedway racers. And I know he’s starting 38th. But he drives for Hendrick Motorsports — and every HMS driver is a threat to contend for the Daytona 500, considering the engine builders at HMS seem to have some sort of magic sauce. Also? He’s pretty good at superspeedways. Decent value.
▪ Looking for a safer bet? FanDuel has Ford being the winning manufacturer at +140. Ford hasn’t won a Daytona 500 since 2022 — but it appears the manufacturer is due. It doesn’t hurt that it has some of the most skilled speedway drivers in the game. Those to keep an eye on: Blaney, Logano, Keselowski and Buescher.
This story was originally published February 16, 2025 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Who will win the Daytona 500? Predictions and betting advice for NASCAR’s biggest race."
