The last time South Carolina was this big of an underdog to Florida, Tim Tebow was QB
Coming out of an open week, South Carolina faces Florida as a double-digit home underdog this weekend.
The Gamecocks opened as a 20-point underdog to the Gators, which is the largest line in the series since 2008, though it’s since gone down to 18, per Betonline.ag.
ESPN Chalk gambling writer David Purdum discusses the line and how both teams have fared against the spread this season.
The State: What do you think was the biggest influence on Florida opening as a 20-point favorite against South Carolina?
David Purdum: I just think that the power rankings that the oddsmakers have just kind of spit out this number when they matched these two teams off. Florida did not look good last week, so maybe that brought the number down a little bit, but of course South Carolina’s had mighty struggles. The thing that is noteworthy on this point spread: It is the largest one in this series going back to 2008. I believe that’s when Tim Tebow was around. Florida was a 21-point favorite then, so now we’re looking at 19, 18.5, somewhere around that range. I think we have that conversation each week, right? We keep seeing a historic line on the Gamecocks’ games.
TS: How have the Gators done versus the spread this season?
DP: They haven’t had their greatest year, either. Florida’s 3-5 against the spread at this time. Their what we call spread differential — the average margin of victory compared to the average spread — they’re -4.5 right now in that, so they have failed to meet the betting market’s expectation this year.
TS: How much have the sportsbooks’ opinions of Florida changed since the preseason?
DP: They lost a lot of guys last year, Pitts, Trask, Tony. I just think that they were down a little bit in the power ratings, but any time you have an SEC school, you kind of just expect them to reload and that’s cliche. People expected them to be a contender, at least, or at least competitive. I don’t think anybody expected Georgia to be quite as dominant as they are. Florida was 60/1 (to make the College Football Playoff) to start the season. That was comparable to Notre Dame’s odds, Iowa, Penn State, so those middle of the pack in major conferences. They’re off the board right now. No more odds; there’s no chance of them getting into the playoff at this point; 60/1, they have failed to meet those expectations.
TS: What’s the Gamecocks’ current record against the spread this year?
DP: They are 3-4-1 against the spread. Pretty even there. That spread margin that we talked about a moment ago … that’s 2.9 for them, so the betting market’s done a pretty good job of getting a good gauge on what South Carolina is even though we’ve seen some really giant point spreads. They have not been able to cover them that often.
TS: Other games worth highlighting or getting a lot of interest betting-wise?
DP: We didn’t talk about Clemson but you saw what happened last week on that fluke play at the end there. That touchdown actually covered the spread and pushed the game over the total, so there were a lot of bettors who had Florida State +9.5 . That happened and they were demoralized.
This story was originally published November 3, 2021 at 5:00 AM with the headline "The last time South Carolina was this big of an underdog to Florida, Tim Tebow was QB."
