How South Carolina can reach bowl eligibility in Shane Beamer’s first season
Shane Beamer is inheriting a project.
For as positive as Beamer has been over the offseason and what perceived strengths might exist in Columbia, South Carolina is still in its first year under a new head coach after winning just six games the past two seasons.
And while the Gamecocks are still in the process of building a foundation under Beamer, there’s an outside chance South Carolina could play its way into a bowl game in 2021.
Starting fast and a trap game at ECU
If Beamer and his staff are hoping to reach the six-win threshold for bowl eligibility this fall, it’ll hinge on a fast start.
Meetings with FCS foe Eastern Illinois in Week 1 and Troy in Week 5 have to be wins. Both games are being played at Williams-Brice Stadium, giving South Carolina a home-field advantage, in addition to the talent gaps that will be on display.
Where things get hairy is a Week 2 trip to East Carolina. The meeting between the Gamecocks and Pirates is a part of a three-game set between the teams — two games of which are to be played in Columbia, and one in Greenville, North Carolina.
Traveling is always a burden. A Southeastern Conference team traveling to a Group of Five campus has a tendency to lean toward absurdity.
East Carolina hasn’t won more than four games since head coach Ruffin McNeil was fired after the 2015 season. Former Citadel head coach Mike Houston is now at the helm in Greenville and is looking to revive what was once a top-of-the-ladder Conference USA program.
Assuming South Carolina handles ECU — which is no guarantee — the Gamecocks are staring a loss at preseason No. 5 Georgia in the face. One week after the trip to Athens, USC returns home for a date with a pesky Kentucky team.
▪ Best chance for wins: Eastern Illinois, ECU
Maneuvering the middle of the schedule
Kentucky has become a staple of stability under Mark Stoops, and it’s fair to assume the Wildcats will be bowl-eligible in 2021. If South Carolina can defeat Kentucky at home, the Gamecocks are sitting pretty, but a loss wouldn’t dim things entirely.
Should USC down Troy — as one would expect — games at Tennessee and home against Vanderbilt become crucial before a brutal close to the campaign.
The Gamecocks have only won in Knoxville twice since 2006, but the Volunteers are in the process of breaking in a new leading man of their own in former UCF head coach Josh Heupel.
Tennessee has only reached a bowl game four times in the past decade, and the since-fired Jeremy Pruitt was just 16-19 in his three years at UT. Beating the Volunteers is a likely swing game in determining whether USC can reach the postseason.
Vanderbilt, like Tennessee, will also have a new coach at the helm when the Commodores head to Columbia, as former Notre Dame defensive coordinator Clark Lea takes over in Nashville.
Vanderbilt has been the worst team in the SEC for years and should be among the conference’s worst, if not the worst team this year. South Carolina has its share of issues, but Vanderbilt might be a full step behind the Gamecocks in 2021.
▪ Best chance for wins: Troy, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
A brutal ending to 2021 — and how USC can get bowl-eligible
If South Carolina beats Vanderbilt and Tennessee, but falls to Kentucky, it would head into the back end of its schedule at 5-2 and needing just one win to reach the postseason.
Games at Texas A&M and home versus No. 3 Clemson and No. 13 Florida are almost assuredly losses. That leaves toss-up games against Auburn in Columbia and at Missouri as South Carolina’s best chances to reach the six-win threshold.
Auburn is another of the four SEC programs welcoming a new head coach this fall after hiring Bryan Harsin from Boise State. Tigers quarterback Bo Nix has been mediocre at best during his time on The Plains, and Auburn has to replace its top three receivers from a year ago. Harsin’s squad should be more talented on paper than South Carolina, but it shouldn’t be any better than the team the Gamecocks knocked off for one of their two wins a year ago.
South Carolina is 2-2 in the other Columbia since Missouri joined the SEC in 2012. The Tigers are on the up-and-up, though, under head coach Eliah Drinkwitz and quarterback Connor Bazelak. Winning on the road in Columbia is tricky. Meeting a Missouri team that might be the third-best team in the SEC East behind Georgia and Florida is a stiffer task.
▪ Best chance for win No. 6: Auburn
Final thoughts
Most preseason prognosticators indicate South Carolina should win three or four games this fall, but there are enough toss-up games against perceived mediocre teams that the Gamecocks could surprise.
Beamer and his squad realistically need to avoid complete disaster in a 2-10 or 3-9 debut season. If South Carolina can get into the five- or six-win range, it’d be a massive coup for South Carolina’s first-year staff.
South Carolina 2021 football schedule
- Sept. 4: home vs. Eastern Illinois
- Sept. 11: at East Carolina
- Sept. 18: at Georgia
- Sept. 25: home vs. Kentucky
- Oct. 2: home vs. Troy
- Oct. 9: at Tennessee
- Oct. 16: home vs. Vanderbilt
- Oct. 23: at Texas A&M
- Oct. 30: OPEN
- Nov. 6: home vs. Florida
- Nov. 13: at Missouri
- Nov. 20: home vs. Auburn
- Nov. 27: home vs. Clemson
This story was originally published August 24, 2021 at 8:44 AM with the headline "How South Carolina can reach bowl eligibility in Shane Beamer’s first season."
