NCAA baseball projections: Gamecocks await regional fate. Where could they go?
With an early exit from this week’s SEC tournament, the South Carolina baseball team is at the mercy of the NCAA selection committee with what happens next.
At one point looking like a shoo-in for hosting a regional in Columbia, the Gamecocks (33-21, 16-14 SEC) dropped four of their last five SEC series to fall out of the top 15 in RPI, lowering their chances to host.
Named one of the top 20 potential host schools earlier in the month, South Carolina will await the NCAA’s announcement of the final 16 host sites on Sunday at 8:30 p.m. (The full bracket is set at noon Monday on ESPN2.)
Could the Gamecocks still host? If not, where could they end up? Below is look at the possible scenarios:
USC travels nearby as a No. 2 seed
Generally — but not always — the selection committee aims to place teams at a hosting site in their geographic region. Among the 20 predetermined hosting sites, Charlotte and East Carolina are the closest to Columbia. However, the 49ers seem unlikely to host after their elimination in the Conference USA tournament, leaving the Greenville Regional as the lone nearby option. The Pirates hurt their stock with an early loss in the AAC tournament but have not been eliminated and remain a projected host by both D1Baseball.com and Baseball America as of Friday.
Projection: This remains a strong possibility, although the committee could opt to place a team like N.C. State or Old Dominion in the Greenville Regional instead. The loss of Charlotte as a host site lowers the chances.
USC hosts as a No. 1 seed
Though the Gamecocks struggled down the stretch, they do have two key metrics on their side. They rank No. 18 in RPI and third in the country in strength of schedule, which both factor heavily into the selection committee’s decision making. However, there are six SEC teams ahead of the Gamecocks as locks to host, and adding a seventh would go against recent history.
Projection: This is the least likely scenario.
USC hosts, but as a No. 2 seed
Because of COVID-19 precautions, only 20 hosting sites were approved by the NCAA, meaning that if a team other than those 20 were to play their way into a hosting-caliber resume, that team could potentially serve as a No. 1 seed at another school’s home stadium. In the latest Baseball America projection, Old Dominion is listed as the No. 1 seed in the Columbia regional, with the Gamecocks serving as a No. 2 seed in their own home stadium.
Projection: This is at least possible and shouldn’t be ruled out, especially given the unusual circumstances with the pandemic. But there has not been a traveling No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament since 2010, leaving the chances somewhat slim.
USC travels farther away as a No. 2 seed
Because only Greenville remains as a nearby option, the Gamecocks could find themselves making a longer trip than anticipated. In the latest D1Baseball.com projection, released Friday, the Gamecocks are projected as a No. 2 seed in South Bend, Indiana, with No. 1 seed Notre Dame.
Projection: This scenario is much more likely than it was at the beginning of the week. If the Gamecocks don’t end up in the Greenville Regional, a long trip is possible.
This story was originally published May 29, 2021 at 7:40 AM with the headline "NCAA baseball projections: Gamecocks await regional fate. Where could they go?."
