This Selection Sunday, here is what Duke, UNC and Wake Forest basketball likely hear
Selection Sunday is finally upon us. It’s arguably the greatest and most anticipated day of college basketball season that doesn’t involve actual games being played.
The NCAA tournament committee has been scrubbing its seed lines behind closed doors in Indianapolis all week leading up to this evenings selection show, which will be broadcast on CBS at 6 p.m. or can be live streamed here.
It will mark the final NCAA tournament for Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski. While North Carolina coach Hubert Davis gets his first crack at it, Wake Forest coach Steve Forbes hopes he does too.
Here’s what the Blue Devils, Tar Heels and Demon Deacons can expect tonight:
Duke Blue Devils
Duke may have been a longshot for a No. 1 seed even before losing to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game on Saturday. The Blue Devils secured a pair of marquee NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) ranking Quad 1 wins against Gonzaga and Kentucky in non-conference play. But the league just didn’t afford enough opportunities to build on that resume.
Duke finished 6-2 in Q1, which doesn’t come close to comparing against other teams who entered the weekend positioning for a top seed like Gonzaga (10-3), Kansas (12-5), Baylor (10-5) and Kentucky (9-7). It was more on par with Arizona (6-3), but the Wildcats won the Pac-12 championship.
The Blue Devils will most likely still be a No. 2 seed and begin their quest to send Krzyzewski out with a sixth national title in Greenville, S.C. for the first and second rounds.
The only time Krzyzewski’s team has won the national championship and it wasn’t a No. 1 seed was his first title in 1991. The Blue Devils were a No. 2 seed that year.
UNC Tar Heels
Nearly a month ago Selection Sunday figured to be a lot more anxious in Chapel Hill. Carolina didn’t have any Q1 wins until it won at Virginia Tech on Feb. 19. Those nerves didn’t fully calm until the Tar Heels won at Duke in the regular season finale at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The odd thing about the NET’s algorithm, the Heels picked up another Q1 win even while picking up another Q1 loss to Virginia Tech. The Hokies moved into the NET’s top 30 by beating Carolina in the ACC semifinals, so UNC’s home win against them on Jan. 24 became a Q1 victory.
The bad news for the Heels about moving off the tournament bubble could possibly be landing in the 8-9 seed game, which is where ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has them projected. That could mean a potential second round game against a No. 1 seed lurks ahead for Carolina.
The question then would be, could the Heels make a run all the way to the Final Four like they did as an eight seed in the 2000 tournament? Or would they flame out fast like they did last year as an eight seed, losing in the first round for the first time in coach Roy Williams’ career?
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Should the Demon Deacons not hear their names called on Sunday, before complaining, understand that their collection of opponents is probably the reason why. Wake’s NET non-conference strength of schedule ranked 343 — out of 358 Division I teams.
Charleston Southern (349), William & Mary (340), Western Carolina (287), USC Upstate (274), North Carolina A&T (286), Kennesaw State (225), Charlotte (189) and VMI (165).
It’s similar to the 2019 season when N.C. State was denied an at-large bid because of a weak non-conference schedule. And the Wolfpack beat Auburn, as former athletic director Debbie Yow notoriously tweeted, which was a Final Four team.
Head coach Steve Forbes explained with nine newcomers entering the season, he couldn’t play a challenging non-conference slate while they learned to play together.
There were two things Forbes couldn’t prepare for scheduling-wise that ultimate failed the Deacs. Oregon State, which returned five of its top seven players fresh off an Elite Eight appearance last season, did not get any better. The Beavers ranked 252 in the NET.
And a down year in the ACC didn’t provide the chance for as many quality ones as the league normally does. A 13-7 record in ACC play would seemingly guarantee an at-large bid most seasons. This, however, is not most seasons.
Wake failed its chances by losing to Boston College in the ACC tournament’s second round. It likely needed at least one win to have a better chance for an at-large bid.
The way it looks, the league’s Player of the Year and Coach of the Year are likely headed to the NIT.
This story was originally published March 13, 2022 at 7:27 AM with the headline "This Selection Sunday, here is what Duke, UNC and Wake Forest basketball likely hear."