What Vegas Thinks: Why Clemson is still the favorite to win the ACC
For the first time since 2014, Clemson has lost two regular-season games. Still, the Tigers are favored among oddsmakers.
ESPN Chalk gambling writer David Purdum joins us to discuss what’s influenced the Tigers’ perception in the oddsmakers’ eyes.
The State: How did Clemson’s loss to N.C. State, even though it went into double overtime, affect its perception in the power rankings?
David Purdum: They did, significantly. The Tigers are now 100-to-1 to win the national championship in some books. That number seems just crazy for as much success as they’ve had in recent years, but there are still some believers. They opened up as a 14½ favorite over BC (Boston College). That was as low as some of the books opened up. The line has since settled to -16, meaning that there has been some interest in betting on Clemson to increase the line there. As bad as they have looked the last few weeks to start this season, they’re still the odds-on favorite to win the ACC, a -140 favorite (of 5/7 odds), so I guess that kind of says more about the ACC than maybe it does about Clemson.
TS: What do you make of that line against BC for Clemson?
DP: They opened last week at 12 versus N.C. State and I think it closed at like 10½, so that kind of puts BC as maybe a couple pegs down below North Carolina State. To me, they’re pretty even teams and to see that line go up is pretty surprising to me. BC ended up beating Missouri last week, am I right?
TS: Right, yup.
DP: Yeah, so I think that is a little surprising — not necessarily that it’s a two-touchdown line, but that it’s going up and increased, so that surprised me.
TS: That was my next question. Are you surprised that oddsmakers still hold Clemson in regard? Even though they’re struggling, the perception is still high.
DP: No, because of where they have taken that program, where coach Dabo Swinney has taken that program from the recruiting success that they’ve had in recent years. The players that are rated, the oddsmakers use to create their power ratings. The talent is still there. They still have a lot of talent. They just haven’t been able to put it together. When you’re making power ratings, you’re always looking at, OK, if they play their best game, what are they? And, if Clemson were to suddenly switch things around, get their offense going a little bit, the defense is obviously pretty solid, maybe get a couple guys back that have been hurt, then I think Clemson will be back down to what it used to be in terms of the power rating.
TS: Do you think there’s a little bit of history or tradition that you’re talking about that also plays a part in it?
DP: The recent history, for sure. Again, the oddsmakers are going to look at the talent that is within the program. They’ve obviously had their fair share of five- and four-star recruits in recent years. Guys that are NFL prospects are on the team, so that talent, once it gets maximized, that’s what the oddsmakers are looking at. They don’t really care what Clemson did seven, eight years ago even though that’s when they started their run. They’re more recent, looking at the last two or three years, looking at that recruiting, that talent that’s there.
TS: Are there any other ACC games/betting lines worth watching this week?
DP: Nothing stuck out to me. The big one’s in the SEC with Alabama and Ole Miss. It’s a good weekend with Georgia and Arkansas. In terms of ACC, though, I guess Thursday night’s Virginia and Miami, kind of an interesting one there. Miami is about a 5½-point favorite. Nothing really stands out, maybe that Virginia-Miami game.
This story was originally published September 30, 2021 at 6:00 AM with the headline "What Vegas Thinks: Why Clemson is still the favorite to win the ACC."
