Points — and time of possession — important for Duke to stand a chance against UNC
If Duke scores 53 points Saturday for the second consecutive game, its chances of beating rival North Carolina figure to be good.
Of course, it all depends upon how those points are scored.
Last Saturday night, the Blue Devils routed Charlotte 53-19 despite only possessing the ball for 17 minutes, 33 seconds.
That meant the 49ers had it for the remaining 42 minutes, 27 seconds.
Duke (2-5 overall, 1-5 ACC) benefited from a pair of blocked punts and a 70-yard punt return to set up short drives for scores. And running back Deon Jackson’s 65-yard touchdown run on Duke’s first possession accounted for another short, but successful, drive.
There’s nothing wrong with quick scores helping you clear the 50-point mark. Unless, that is, you are facing an explosive offense like UNC presents with sophomore quarterback Sam Howell.
The Tar Heels (4-2) average 38.3 points per game, second in the ACC behind only the nation’s No. 1-ranked team, Clemson, at 46.1.
“You hope you are not out there 42 minutes against one of the best offenses in the country,” Duke coach David Cutcliffe said Tuesday. “It’s very difficult to get them off the field. But, offensively, when we are backed up or when we are out there with a long field, we’ve got to convert better than what we’ve been. We’ve got to stay on the field to not only help our defense but to balance the game.”
That has not been a strong point for Duke’s offense this season. The Blue Devils are No. 7 in the ACC in third-down conversions, turning 40.6% of those plays into first downs. Notre Dame leads the ACC at 54.8%, while UNC is third at 48.5%.
Cutcliffe called that a “critical” area of the matchup and a “real challenge” for his team this week.
UNC’s defense is No. 6 in the ACC in getting stops on third down. Tar Heel opponents have converted 36.1% of the time.
Setting the third-down situation aside, the main problem for Duke’s offense this season has been turnovers. The Blue Devils have thrown 13 interceptions and lost 10 fumbles.
But Duke had just one turnover in its lopsided win over Charlotte, which came after the Blue Devils’ open week. The week off from game preparation gave Cutcliffe time to work with quarterback Chase Brice and the offense, perhaps shoring up that situation.
“With Chase Brice and the receivers, we haven’t had that many practices together in reality because you missed a camp that you normally get,” Cutcliffe said. “Chase is coming into his own speed. He’s more comfortable with what we’re doing. Our practices have been more cohesive and energized because of it. I think the confidence level of this offense is rising and hopefully we can continue that.”
Despite using true freshman Graham Barton at center due to season-ending injuries to Jack Wohlabaugh and Will Taylor, Duke’s running game gives it a chance to hold on to the ball while also possibly opening things up for Brice and the passing game.
Jackson and Mateo Durant each topped the 100-yard mark against Charlotte, the second time they’ve done that this season. They also accomplished the feat in a 38-24 win at Syracuse, Duke’s only other win.
Against the 49ers, Durant rushed for 104 yards and Jackson finished with 101. They rushed for two touchdown apiece.
Duke had won three consecutive games over UNC, and five of the previous seven meetings in the rivalry, before dropping a 20-17 decision at Chapel Hill last season.
Seeing its offense score, and keep the ball away from the Tar Heels, are necessary for the Blue Devils to regain the Victory Bell trophy.
This story was originally published November 3, 2020 at 2:29 PM with the headline "Points — and time of possession — important for Duke to stand a chance against UNC."