Why UNC fans should be optimistic when the Tar Heels face Syracuse
In the midst of North Carolina’s seven-game losing streak earlier this month, its players were sure, even adamant, that they were getting better.
For many, that was hard to see. Before UNC’s 85-79 win over N.C. State, the Tar Heels were 0-7 in February.
But their win over the Wolfpack was the first sign of proof — even for them — that maybe they were right.
Before Tuesday’s game, UNC (11-17, 4-13 ACC) had held a double-digit lead in the second half in 10 games games this season. It was 2-8 in those games.
But on Tuesday, when faced with that scenario again — an 11-point lead with 8:33 left — the Tar Heels did what they needed to do to secure the win: They hit their free throws and got defensive stops.
“I told them we were going to play our play tail off is what we were going to do,” UNC coach Roy Williams said Tuesday. “Come on and do it now. They had to do it themselves.”
Now that the Tar Heels have overcome what had become a mental hurdle, they hope it will carry over into their game against Syracuse (16-12, 9-8 ACC) at the Carrier Dome on Saturday.
Like the Tar Heels, the Orange, who have won two consecutive games, will likely need to win the ACC tournament to get into the NCAA tournament. So the last stretch for these two teams will be crucial as they try to gather momentum before the conference tournament begins.
“We’re not your typical bottom team,” UNC senior Brandon Robinson said Tuesday. “I feel like we can beat anybody in the league. I feel like we’re a scary matchup for anybody in the tournament. And I think, going forward, we’ve just got to keep building off this.”
Effective against zone
Syracuse, coached by Hall of Fame head coach Jim Boeheim, is best known for its 2-3 zone defense. It forces opponents to move the ball around the perimeter and settle for 3’s. Nearly half of its opponents shots — 48.1 percent — are 3-pointers, according to kenpom.com. That is third-most in the country.
That strategy against the Tar Heels would seem to play into Syracuse’s hands. The Tar Heels have been among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, making only 28.8 percent of their 3-point attempts.
However, historically, the Tar Heels have played well against the zone (UNC is 8-1 against Syracuse since 2012). And they’ve been able to win without being particularly effective from 3.
On Jan. 16, 2017, UNC shot 29 percent from 3 in an 85-68 win over Syracuse. On Feb. 21, 2018, UNC shot 36 percent from 3 in a 78-74 win. On March 7, 2018, UNC shot 31.6 percent from 3 in a 78-59 win. And on Feb. 26, 2019, the Tar Heels shot 31 percent from 3 in a 93-85 win over the Orange.
UNC likes to expose the middle of Syracuse’s zone with its two big men by using its high/low action. The Tar Heels can do that with junior forward Garrison Brooks and freshman forward Armando Bacot.
However, that would require Bacot, who is shooting 5 of 18 in his last three games, to hit some tough shots.
In the Tar Heels’ 2019 win over the Orange, they were effective at drawing fouls. The Tar Heels were 34 of 37 from the free throw line.
While the Tar Heels have struggled for most of this season from the free throw line, it was critical in their win against N.C. State.
Brooks, who finished with 30 points and 9 rebounds, had one of his best games. He made 14 of 16 free throws, including his last 11. Because easy shots will be hard to come by, the Tar Heels will likely need to be effective from the free throw line again.
“We’ve got to take Syracuse head on with everything we got, and try to get the (W),” graduate senior Christian Keeling said.
UNC vs. Syracuse
When: 4 p.m., Saturday
Where: Carrier Dome, Syracuse
TV: ESPN
This story was originally published February 28, 2020 at 3:20 PM with the headline "Why UNC fans should be optimistic when the Tar Heels face Syracuse."
