Full scout: How does UNC stack up against Temple in the Military Bowl?
When North Carolina faces Temple on Friday, it will be another opportunity for the Tar Heels to do something they haven’t done for some time.
Last month, the Tar Heels were trying to become bowl eligible for the first time in three years. Now, they are trying win a bowl game for the first time in six years.
UNC coach Mack Brown said earlier this week that he told his players that becoming bowl eligible is just the “minimum goal.” From this point forward, the Tar Heels want to continue to win and get to better bowls.
A win here would give the Tar Heels some positive momentum heading into next season. But in order to do that, the Tar Heels will have to play well against a good Temple team.
“Like always the team that plays best up front is probably going to win the game,” Brown told reporters on Monday.
Here is a scout of the Owls:
Temple’s record: 8-4, 5-3
Conference: American Athletic
Best win: Oct. 12, W 30-28 over then No. 23 Memphis. The now 17th-ranked Tigers (12-1) are playing in Cotton Bowl vs. No. 10 Penn State. It was the Tigers’ only loss of the season.
Worst loss: Sept. 21, L 38-22 against Buffalo (8-5).
Temple vs. UNC’s passing defense
There’s no unit on UNC’s team that is more beat up than its secondary. One of UNC’s starting cornerbacks, Patrice Rene, tore his ACL in Week 2 against Miami. And UNC safeties Myles Wolfolk, Cam’Ron Kelly and Bryson Richardson had their seasons end prematurely because of injuries.
Sophomore cornerback Trey Morrison has also missed a number of games after having arm surgery. But he’s expected to play against Temple.
With that said, UNC’s secondary has been arguably its weakest unit this year. The Tar Heels have had to start two true freshmen at both outside cornerback spots multiple times. And on multiple occasions, UNC’s secondary has struggled against veteran quarterbacks.
Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins passed for 378 yards and three touchdowns in the Nov. 2 meeting. And two weeks later, Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett passed for 359 yards and a touchdown.
Temple quarterback Anthony Russo has performed well this season. During his second year as a starter , he’s passed for 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and has connected on 58.6 percent of passes.
He has two “go-to” wide receivers in Jadan Blue, who is 6-feet, 185 pounds, and Branden Mack, who is 6-5, 220 pounds. Blue has 975 yards receiving and four touchdowns. Mack has 886 yards receiving and seven touchdowns.
The Owls average 259.8 yards passing per game, which is ranked 39th in the country.
All signs are pointing to Temple having the advantage.
Advantage: Owls
UNC vs. Temple’s passing defense
Few teams have been able to stop Sam Howell, who this season broke many freshman records and a program record for most passing touchdowns in a season.
Howell has passed for 3,347 yards, 35 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Against the pass, Temple has been slightly above average. The Owls rank 49th out of 130 FBS teams with 212.5 passing yards allowed per game. The Owls have given up 17 passing touchdowns and have eight interceptions.
Where the Owls have had success is up front. Their defense has 39 sacks, which is ranked 13th in the country. By comparison, UNC has 28 sacks.
The Tar Heels have been among the worst teams in the country in allowing sacks with 37, 116th out of 130 FBS teams.
The Owls are led by defensive end Quincy Roche. The 6-4, 235-pound junior has 13 sacks, which ranks top five in the country. He has forced a fumble and has two fumble recoveries.
He could pose a problem.
However, Howell looked bad only twice this year — against Wake Forest and Appalachian State. Since then, he’s been hard to stop. UNC junior wide receiver Dazz Newsome was one of the best wide receivers in the ACC over the second half of the season. And sophomore receiver Dyami Brown is capable of scoring on a go route at almost any moment.
Advantage: Tar Heels. But slight.
Temple vs. UNC’s running defense
Aside from a couple of games, when UNC faced a quarterback who could run, the Tar Heels have been good against the run.
UNC defensive tackle Aaron Crawford has been a brick wall. Pro Football Focus, a football analytics site, graded Crawford as the nation’s “best run-stopping interior defender.” He had 10 tackles for either no gain or a loss this year.
The Tar Heels are ranked 58th in the country in rushing defense. They give up 149 yards rushing per game. However, some of their worst performances against the run are against teams with quarterbacks who like to use their legs.
And Russo, Temple’s quarterback, hasn’t been much of a runner this year.
The Owls average 142.2 yards rushing per game, which is ranked 91st out of 130 FBS teams. Temple’s top running back is freshman Re’Mahn Davis, who is 5-9, 210 pounds. He has rushed for 900 yards and seven touchdowns and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season.
Advantage: Tar Heels
UNC vs. Temple’s running defense
When it comes to the Tar Heels’ offense, it starts with the offensive line and those three running backs — Michael Carter, Javonte Williams and Antonio Williams. Usually, if the running game gets going, that means the Tar Heels are going to have a successful day. They average 184 yards rushing per game, which is 41st in the country.
The Owls give up 152.3 yards rushing per game, which is tied for 61st in the country. That’s about average.
The Owls are a mixed bag. They’ve given up 17 rushing touchdowns. But opponents average a mere 3.65 yards per carry against them. Six Owl players have 7.5 or more tackles for loss this year. Roche, the Temple defensive end, has 18 tackles for loss.
But each of the Tar Heels running backs should be healthy in this game. I expect the Tar Heels will try to establish the run game here and they have the pieces to do that.
Advantage: Toss up.
Special teams
Temple coach Rod Carey has gone for it on fourth down 33 times this year. By comparison, the Tar Heels have gone for it 22 times.
The Owl’s kickers have attempted only 13 field goals and have connected on 11.
They haven’t gotten much from their kick returners or punt returners, and the Tar Heels specials teams’ defense has been good against both.
And since Noah Ruggles has returned after his benching earlier this season, he’s made 7 of 8 field-goal attempts.
Advantage: Tar Heels
Coaching
Temple coach Rod Carey has done a great job this season at Temple, getting the Owls to an 8-4 record his first season with the program. And in the six full seasons he was at Northern Illinois, he had success there, too.
But Mack Brown is in the College Football Hall of Fame. And there’s no denying he has the advantage. Brown has a 13-8 bowl record. Carey is 0-6.
Advantage: Tar Heels
Prediction
Both Brown and Carey are in the first year with their respective programs and are looking to end the season on a positive note. Both teams are talented and this should be a good game.
Temple has a good pass rush and that should be the biggest cause for concern for the Tar Heels, as they’ve struggled at times to keep Howell upright.
However, I think the Tar Heels are hot right now. After winning their first four games by a combined 26 points, their last two wins were by a combined 80 points, albeit against two bad teams in N.C. State and Mercer.
But I don’t think the Tar Heels see it that way. I think they’ll enter this game with confidence and swagger just like they did against South Carolina, and should pull off the victory.
I do think Temple is good enough, though, that it will be a close game. And I’ll be bold here. I’ll say Sam Howell pulls off his third fourth-quarter comeback this year.
UNC 28, Temple 24
UNC vs. Temple
What: Military Bowl
When: Friday, Dec. 27
Where: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Time: Noon
TV: ESPN
This story was originally published December 26, 2019 at 9:56 AM with the headline "Full scout: How does UNC stack up against Temple in the Military Bowl?."
