ACC bowl guide: A potential win for Deacs; Heels need SEC help
The College Football Playoff rankings came out on Tuesday. The ACC had two teams in the top 25.
That moved the ACC bowl picture one step closer to being clearer.
Sorta. Kinda.
It’s always complicated when it comes to the ACC bowl selection process. How it looks after the penultimate CFP rankings were unveiled and heading into Saturday’s conference championship game between Clemson (12-0) and Virginia in Charlotte:
Orange/Citrus scenarios
Virginia (9-3), fresh off its streak-busting 39-30 win over Virginia Tech, was ranked No. 23 in the CFP rankings on Tuesday night. That puts the Cavaliers in position to fill the ACC’s guaranteed spot in the Orange Bowl on Dec. 30.
When the ACC champion (Clemson is a four-touchdown favorite) is in the CFP, then the second-highest ranked team gets the league’s contracted spot in the Orange Bowl.
The selection committee has typically not punished the loser of conference championship games. Northwestern was 8-4 heading into the Big Ten championship game last year as a heavy underdog to Ohio State and dropped only one spot to No. 22 in the final rankings after a 45-24 loss to the Buckeyes.
In 2017, Miami dropped three spots to No. 10 after a 38-3 loss to Clemson in the ACC title game. So unless something unusual happens, Virginia will be in a major bowl for the first time since 1991 and only second time in school history.
The opponent in the Orange Bowl became a little bit clearer on Tuesday.
Sorta. Kinda.
Based on the latest rankings, No. 10 Penn State would be the opponent in the Orange. And when the Big Ten is the ACC’s opponent in the Orange, that opens up a spot in the Citrus Bowl for the ACC or Notre Dame.
But ... that would only be the case if the rankings remain the same. The odds of that happening are not great or even good.
No. 4 Georgia would need beat No. 2 LSU and both SEC teams would have to make the playoff for the Big Ten to hold onto its spot in the Orange.
A Georgia loss would likely lead to an SEC opponent in Orange Bowl (and no Citrus spot for the ACC). No. 9 Florida, No. 11 Auburn and No. 12 Alabama are all in position to move up with a loss by No. 8 Wisconsin to No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game.
A Wisconsin loss matters because it would push Penn State up to the Rose (highest-rated available Big Ten team) and one of the SEC teams into the Orange.
It is more likely than not that the SEC will wind up as the opponent in the Orange. That means only one spot in Orlando for the ACC.
Notre Dame (10-2) tops the Orlando pecking order. If the Citrus comes open, the Fighting Irish would take that spot to face an SEC team (which would be Alabama based on this week’s rankings).
The Camping World Bowl on Dec. 28 would then choose from Virginia Tech (8-4), Wake Forest (8-4), Louisville (7-5) or Pitt (7-5), based on the ACC’s “2-win” rule. The Big 12 is the opponent.
If it’s just the Camping World for the ACC, the Irish would fill that spot, based on their football arrangement with the ACC.
Another win for Wake?
Wake Forest has been pushing hard for the ACC’s spot in the Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 27) at Yankee Stadium in New York.
With eight wins, the Demon Deacons are guaranteed to have a spot in one of the four “Tier I” games, but they’re not guaranteed to be selected ahead of UNC (6-6).
Head-to-head results are not part of the selection criteria but the Deacs did beat the Tar Heels in a nonconference matchup on Sept. 13 in Winston-Salem. They both finished 4-4 in ACC play.
At this point, it looks like the Deacs appear to be the preferred choice of the Pinstripe for a potential matchup with Michigan State (6-6).
Virginia Tech is also guaranteed a spot in Tier I. The Hokies are on track to be the choice in Charlotte for the Belk Bowl (Dec. 31). The SEC is the opponent in Charlotte. More on that in a second.
UNC’s options
The Tar Heels (6-6) are eligible for a Tier I game since only two teams finished with at least eight wins. They have an appealing story with the return of Mack Brown and the star turn of quarterback Sam Howell.
If the Pinstripe does opt for Wake, the Tar Heels might need some help from the SEC to land in Nashville for the Music City Bowl (Dec. 30).
Two of the SEC options for the Belk and Music City are Kentucky and Mississippi State. If Kentucky is the choice in the Music City, then UNC would be paired up with the Wildcats to avoid a regular-season rematch with Louisville. But if Mississippi State is in Nashville, then Louisville would likely be the choice.
That leaves the Sun Bowl (Dec. 31) as the last Tier I option. The Sun is not normally a heavy-hitter in ACC bowl politics. Due to geography (El Paso, Texas), it’s mostly there as a safety net for the “2-win” rule.
There is a sense that the Sun “took one for the team” last year by taking Pitt and is “owed” a more attractive ACC option this season.
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. That could mean UNC and Brown, who led Texas to the national title in 2005 and is still a household name in that state.
Or it could mean Miami (6-6) or Florida State (6-6). The Florida schools are far from their prime but they still have value as national brands for TV.
Military and the rest of Tier II
The Military Bowl in Annapolis, Md. (Dec. 27) gets the first choice after the Tier I games. They would prefer UNC and might get the Tar Heels if the Music City and Sun pass on them. Pitt, which lost to Navy in the same game in 2015, would be the likely choice if UNC is not on the board.
The Independence Bowl in Shreveport (Dec. 26) just had FSU in 2017 but would take the Seminoles (or Miami) over Pitt. That leaves the Panthers for the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit (Dec. 26), where they beat Bowling Green in 2013.
The Birmingham Bowl (Jan. 2) will take the last ACC team and that’s expected to be Boston College. The ACC has a secondary agreement with either the Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 20) in Tampa, Fla. or Birmingham but the Gasparilla is expected to match a Conference-USA opponent with a American Athletic Conference team.
Boston College caused an 11th-hour shuffle last year, when it lobbied out of Detroit and into the First Responder Bowl in Dallas. After getting its way last year, and with no coach this year, the Eagles are not exactly high on the priority list.
This story was originally published December 4, 2019 at 12:17 PM with the headline "ACC bowl guide: A potential win for Deacs; Heels need SEC help."
