Miller: Is Cruz about to shake up the Republican campaign?
POLITICAL VOICES
We have asked two political junkies, one conservative and one liberal, to share their viewpoints on issues and politics leading up to the 2016 presidential election.
We will be publishing guest columns from time to time from Mike Miller and Blaine Lotz.
Miller's experience in politics includes working in the Reagan White House political office. He produces a blog on politics called MikesAmerica.
Lotz is chair of the Beaufort County Democratic Party and a former candidate for Congress.
Earlier this fall, I noticed something odd. Suddenly, mainstream news organizations began publishing positive articles about Sen. Ted Cruz, suggesting he is a GOP presidential contender to watch. At the time, he was back in the pack of national and early state polls. But in the last few weeks a change has taken place.
In the wake of the Paris and Mali terror attacks, Katie Glueck, writing for Politico, described how strong conservative voters she interviewed in Iowa were shifting their allegiance from Dr. Ben Carson to Cruz largely because they felt Cruz had a better grasp on national security issues. In the wake of the California massacre, that trend may continue.
And it's not just former Iowa frontrunner Carson who is taking a hit. Recent Iowa polling shows Trump leading some and Cruz others. (I've posted summaries of national and early state polling at my blog, Mike's America.)
Cruz took his seat in the U.S. Senate after a surprising come-from-behind win in Texas. He may be implementing that plan once again. And we certainly should not overlook the fact that his campaign has more cash on hand than any other candidate but Trump. Cruz also has the advantage in that he is despised by the GOP establishment in Washington; that's a winner with many GOP voters.
If Cruz were to win the Iowa Caucus on Feb. 1, he would certainly shake up the race. But he's vying with Sen. Marco Rubio for a distant second place in New Hampshire, where Trump leads. In South Carolina, Trump leads with a solid second by Carson followed by Cruz and Rubio 10 points below. However, South Carolina polls could change quickly after results from the first two states. I'm not going out on a limb when I say Cruz is the man to watch for now.
Rubio is paired with Cruz in national, New Hampshire and South Carolina positive polling trends. Both are strong on national defense, and Rubio has a Reaganesque message and personal story about American exceptionalism that is quite compelling. But Rubio still carries baggage from his ill-fated involvement in comprehensive immigration legislation that would have granted immediate "registered provisional" status (others call it amnesty) to millions of illegal aliens, with border security to come later. Maybe.
Rubio is also backed by billionaire fund manager Paul Singer, who supports lax immigration policies as well as other liberal causes. It raises the question whether Rubio could really walk away from his past immigration mistake and be his own man. He's yet to answer that question in a GOP debate.
This month's honorable mention goes out to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. He's trying hard, but so far it's not working; at least not yet. He's above the lower tier of the pack but not by much nationally and in state polling. If you have watched television recently, you've seen the ads from his political action committee. His super PAC has more money than any other GOP candidate. Money talks, but will it save Jeb?
Michael Miller of Sun City Hilton Head may be reached through his blog, http://MikesAmerica.blogspot.com.
This story was originally published December 9, 2015 at 9:18 PM with the headline "Miller: Is Cruz about to shake up the Republican campaign?."