Friday update: Tropical Storm Gabrielle may form. What’s the risk to Hilton Head?
Update 1:30 p.m. Friday: The tropical disturbance now has a 90% chance of cyclone formation over the next week, according to the National Hurricane Center. A tropical depression is likely to develop from the disturbance over the weekend. The system is moving west slowly across the Atlantic, and it’s too early to tell if it will have any effects on South Carolina, according to Frank Strait, severe weather liaison with the State Climatology Office.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave moving over the Atlantic. While the effects of the system on South Carolina are still unclear, various environmental conditions favor further development into a tropical depression by the end of the week.
At the moment, the system is simply a set of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Should the system continue to develop into a tropical storm, it would be known as Gabrielle.
The National Hurricane Center predicts that the system will move west across the Atlantic into the beginning of next week. The system has a 70% chance of developing into a cyclone, which can include a tropical depression or storm, in the next seven days.
According to a newsletter from hurricane and storm surge expert Michael Lowry, models of the storm’s track are still uncertain. As the system continues to develop there will be a clearer picture of the track. While there is still a great deal of uncertainty, it looks like current weather patterns would point to the system turning east, away from the mainland United States.
This system comes at a time when tropical activity in the Atlantic typically ramps up. According to the National Hurricane Center, the peak of the season is Sept. 10, and most tropical activity occurs between mid-August and mid-October.
This story was originally published September 3, 2025 at 12:13 PM.
