As Irma fades, does the Lowcountry need to worry about Hurricane Jose?

The Lowcountry is just waking up to the aftermath of Hurricane Irma, with many coastal residents still waiting to return home. As people begin picking up the pieces from the last hurricane, though, another one is waiting in the wings.

Hurricane Jose had been stalking Irma through the Atlantic last week. Then as Irma turned her attention to the Caribbean and Florida coast, Jose began to wander. Its path will actually take it on a loop through Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Then? It could be headed to the Carolinas.

Tropical weather track

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Source: National Hurricane Center

If that will come to pass is anyone’s guess at this point. James Carpenter, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Charleston, compared any track projections past the five days issued by the hurricane center to throwing darts at a dartboard, even if the track line seems to point at the Carolina coast right now.

Even if it doesn’t approach the Carolinas, though, its presence should still be felt here.

“Given the amount of time that it is hovering in the Atlantic, it is very likely that we will see enhanced swell energy propagating out towards the coast over the next week or so,” said Carpenter. “There could be slightly rougher seas and higher risk for rip currents as that swell energy gets in.”

Coastal effects could be even more severe if some forecasting models are to be believed.

The spaghetti model above is more speculative than a hurricane center model, but several of the strands in that model have it passing close enough to the Carolina coast to make its presence felt.

Jose is currently a Category 1 storm. It is located 655 miles north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, moving north-northwest at 6 mph. It is sporting sustained winds of 75 mph with gusts up to 92 mph.

Over the next several days it is expected to weaken slightly as it makes its loop, then gain strength as it sets its sights eastward. By Friday it is predicted to have sustained winds of roughly 80 mph with gusts up to 98 mph.

One lesson taught by Irma is that tracks can always change. Things are often more uncertain than even the cone of uncertainty can account for. Up until a few days before making landfall in Florida, for instance, Irma was supposed to directly hit the Lowcountry as a Category 3 storm.

For that reason, while it might be too early to say that Jose is coming here, it isn’t too early to keep an eye on it.

This story was originally published September 12, 2017 at 9:52 AM with the headline "As Irma fades, does the Lowcountry need to worry about Hurricane Jose?."