Tropical Storm Helene expected to strengthen. How will it affect Beaufort County?
Tropical Storm Helene, which forecasters expected to strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early Wednesday, is likely to bring strong winds, heavy rain and rough seas to the Lowcountry, according to the National Weather Service’s Charleston Office.
At 11 a.m. Tuesday, the storm system was 180 miles east-southeast of Cozumel Mexico, moving 12 mph and packing sustained wind speeds of 45 mph, National Hurricane Center forecasters said. The center of Helene will move across the far northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday evening, and then churn across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, potentially reaching the Gulf coast of Florida late Thursday, according to the NHC.
“Continued strengthening is anticipated after that time, and Helene could become a major hurricane on Thursday,” the center said, adding that the storm would rapidly intensify starting Wednesday.
Local meteorologists said the storm is expected to be large and affect areas reaching “well outside” of the Track Cone of uncertainty, including the Lowcountry. The bulk of impacts will be Thursday.
“At this early stage in the game, we have to talk in terms of ‘most likely’ rather than details because there is more uncertainty in dealing with tropical features that haven’t developed yet,” said Frank Strait, the state’s severe weather liaison. “However, we have enough consensus among computer model forecasts to say that South Carolina will see effects and that they have the potential to be significant.”
NWS Charleston Meteorologist Ron Morales said models showing Helene’s track are “quite locked in.”
Between Wednesday afternoon and Friday evening, tropical-storm-force winds, elevated tides, storm surge, isolated tornadoes, periods of heavy rainfall and high surf are listed as potential impacts, according to the NWS’ Tuesday morning briefing.
Storm-related wind, storm surge and rain show moderate impacts Thursday through Friday. The earliest effects could be seen as early as later Wednesday, with minor impacts from wind, storm surge, rain and dangerous surf conditions.
As of Tuesday morning, Beaufort County was expected to get up to 3 inches of rain between Wednesday evening and through Friday evening, with the majority of rainfall happening Thursday into Thursday night. However, local meteorologists said that amount is subject to change.
“These amounts if they occur in a few hours, which is possible, there could be some flash flooding going on,” Morales said.
While there wasn’t a probability for hurricane-force winds in the Lowcountry on Tuesday, meteorologists said to watch trends. They anticipate tropical-storm-force winds were likely and could whip through starting as early as Thursday afternoon.
The system could bring high surf, “significant” beach erosion and deadly rip currents to Beaufort County on Thursday and Friday, the service said. Thursday and into the evening, seas could build between 8 and 16 feet marine conditions, and wind or wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph are possible into Friday morning. Storm surge inundation will be between 1 and 2 feet above normally dry ground in the tidal areas, which could lead to flooding.
Tornadoes are possible Thursday afternoon through the evening.
“It’s time to prepare for a big storm, and you have until Thursday afternoon to prepare,” Strait said.
This story was originally published September 24, 2024 at 9:16 AM.
