SC dodges Hurricane Nigel. New system bears ‘considerable’ watching, meteorologist says
While forecasters predict Hurricane Nigel will turn northward Tuesday and accelerate northeastward throughout the week, meaning coastal South Carolina will dodge the storm, local meteorologists have their eyes on a different system.
An area of low pressure slightly off the southeast coast could impact the Lowcountry late this week, said the National Weather Service’s Charleston Office on Monday morning. Peter Mohlin, meteorologist with the office, said weather conditions could deteriorate as soon as Wednesday evening.
Although confidence is increasing that the system will affect coastal South Carolina, meteorologists aren’t yet clear as to how. It could become tropical or stay non-tropical. It could move onshore or stay offshore. Severity of the developing system is not known. And exact timing of the impact was unclear as of Monday.
“It’s certainly up in the air at this point in time, but (the system) will bear considerable watching as we go through the week,” Mohlin said.
Within the next seven days, the chance of cyclone formation is 30%. If the system remains offshore and moves northward or northwestward, it could display some subtropical characteristics this weekend, according to the NWS.
Frank Strait, the state’s severe weather liaison, said he “can’t rule out this (area of low pressure) becoming a tropical system.”
Latest projections show the Lowcountry could get heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and experience coastal and marine hazards — such as enhanced risk of rip currents and coastal flooding. However, Mohlin added that it all “depends on the evolution” of the low pressure system.
At the very least, local meteorologists said to expect rainfall and possible strong winds beginning Wednesday evening.
Strait reminded that September’s weather pattern is particularly precarious and is “ripe for sneak attacks” from tropical cyclones.
“The weather pattern for the rest of September will feature cold fronts pushing through the southeastern states and becoming stationary over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and southwestern Atlantic Ocean,” Strait said. “Also, we’re coming to the time of year when weak low-pressure areas forming over Central America can spawn tropical cyclones; those can also spin up fast because waters are always very warm over the western Caribbean Sea.”
While South Carolina avoided Hurricane Nigel’s direct impact, if enough swell energy from Nigel is able to reach the coast, it will cause enhanced rip current risk, high surf and beach erosion from “prolonged onshore flow associated with inland high pressure and a weak surface low offshore,” a local forecast discussion said.
The local weather service said it expects “at least” the issuance of a small craft advisory Wednesday evening.
This story was originally published September 18, 2023 at 11:46 AM.
