Tropical Storm Jerry forms, moves closer to SC. Here’s the latest weather forecast
As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season draws to a close, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas in the tropics: Tropical Storm Jerry and another potential development in the Gulf.
Here’s what South Carolinians should know about these developments and what weather impacts they will bring to the coast later this week:
Tropical Storm Jerry
A large area of showers and thunderstorms – now classified as Tropical Storm Jerry with 45 mph winds – is continuing to develop and is located in the Central Atlantic Ocean. It officially strengthened to a tropical storm on Tuesday.
According to the NHC, the storm is moving west at 24 mph and is expected to track near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by Thursday and Friday.
As of Tuesday, most spaghetti model plots for Tropical Storm Jerry currently show a consensus that the system will gradually curve northwest, then north by late this week or early next week, due to a dip in the jet stream that is expected to steer the system away from land and push it back to the ocean.
This path keeps the system well east of the Southeast U.S. coast, including South Carolina.
Tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico
Meanwhile, in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, a broad area of low pressure over the Yucatán Peninsula is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche later today.
The NHC says there is only a 10% chance of tropical development over the next week as it moves inland into southern Mexico by midweek. Despite the low development odds, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to parts of the Yucatán Peninsula, Belize and southern Mexico.
Forecasts for the SC coast
Due to the dip in the jet stream that’s anticipated to push Tropical Storm Jerry out to sea, wind and a rainstorm are expected to form off the Southeast coast Friday or over the weekend, bringing some rain and coastal impacts to the Palmetto State.
Rain will be most likely on Thursday and Friday as the storm moves across the Carolinas and then up toward Virginia and Maryland.
As the rain moves north into the weekend, the storm is still expected to bring rough surf, rip currents and coastal flooding impacts along the entire South Carolina coastline.
Temperatures will also see a dip. Here’s a look at the forecast outlook for these coastal areas, according to the National Weather Service:
Hilton Head Island
- Thursday and Friday bring a 30% chance of showers and storms, with highs in the mid-70s and breezy northeast winds gusting up to 25 mph.
- By the weekend, conditions begin to improve with mostly sunny skies and highs near 76-78 degrees. Saturday brings a 20% chance of showers.
Charleston
- Breezy conditions are expected starting Thursday, with gusts up to 28 mph and a 20-30% chance of scattered showers through Friday.
- The weekend forecast shows partial sunshine and gradually clearing skies, with temperatures in the low to mid-70s. Saturday brings a 20% chance of showers.
Myrtle Beach
- Rain chances ramp up Wednesday night, with a 60% chance of thunderstorms. Winds will shift and increase, becoming breezy with gusts to 25 mph on Thursday and a 30% chance of showers.
- Rain chances taper off by Sunday, with mostly sunny skies returning and highs in the low 70s.
