Will SC have dry, warm or rainy weather this fall? Here are the Farmers Almanac, NWS forecasts
Wondering when it’ll be cool enough to whip out your favorite fall sweaters and pumpkin spiced beverages?
Even though this week has brought a slight dip in temperatures, with some areas of the state reaching down to 60 degrees, South Carolinians should expect warmer than usual temperatures this fall, the latest forecasts show.
According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, the Palmetto State is headed for above-average warm temperatures this fall, with a below-average dose of stormy weather, the Farmer’s Almanac predicts.
Fall officially begins on Sept. 22 and ends on Dec. 21 this year.
Here are the details on what to expect weather-wise this fall from the NWS and Farmer’s Almanac, along with the chances of a La Niña this season.
NWS fall predictions for SC
The NWS predicts a 40% to 50% chance of temperatures leaning above average from October through December for all of South Carolina.
As for rainfall, the NWS predicts equal chances of precipitation being above or below normal for all of South Carolina from Oct. through Dec.
Farmer’s Almanac predictions
Overall, the Farmer’s Almanac predicts warmer-than-average temperatures and dry conditions with below-average rainfall for the Southeast this fall.
Created in 1792, the Farmers’ Almanac has used a combination of solar science, climatology and meteorology to predict long-range weather forecasts. The forecasts are typically made two years in advance. The Farmers’ Almanac states that they correctly predict the weather about 80% of the time.
September is expected to bring an average temperature of 78 degrees, which is 3 degrees higher than normal and an expected 4 inches of rainfall, 1 inch below normal. The Almanac expects a mostly warm Sept., with some stormy conditions and a cooler finish.
In the 60-day extended forecast, South Carolinians can expect to see thunderstorms mid-month, with temperatures cooling during the final week of September.
October brings a temperature drop to an average of 64 degrees with 1.5 inches of rainfall, which is 1.5 inches below normal. The Farmer’s Almanac expects October to be sunny and warm early on, with showers coming in mid-month and a cooler end.
In October, the extended forecast predicts sunny and mild conditions for most of the month, with showers possible from the 11th through the 23rd, where temperatures will dip and a chance of showers again from the 27th to the 31st, which could bring a few drops to trick-or-treaters on Halloween.
The Farmer’s Almanac also expects above-normal hurricane activity this season, with a high count of named storms. Hurricane season officially ends in November.
What about La Niña?
La Niña is a climate pattern marked by cooler-than-average water temperatures in the Pacific coast that push the jet stream northward, leading to changes in upper atmosphere patterns, influencing weather globally.
La Niña can also lead to a more severe hurricane season.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Niña is expected to form sometime between September and December.
“La Niña conditions are favored for a short duration during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter,” NOAA states.
If La Niña takes over, the southern half of the country is likely to get drier, warmer weather, which aligns with the NWS's average temperature prediction for South Carolina.
La Niña typically favors warmer-than-normal conditions in the South, with cooler conditions for most of the northwest and north-central states.
