A diverse 2020 field is down to two white men. They both face challenges with Warren’s base.
A Democratic presidential race that began with the largest and most diverse field of candidates in history has abruptly narrowed to a choice between two old white men, who now find themselves courting the most successful woman to run this cycle — and her supporters.
No matter who, or if, Elizabeth Warren decides to endorse, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders each face unique challenges in winning over her core base: largely white, college-educated women who gravitated toward the potential of a female president and were inspired by her litany of progressive policy proposals.
Like any voting bloc, Warren’s supporters won’t move en masse to one candidate. But her decision could prove to be one of the most consequential moments not only in the 2020 primary, but for the future of the progressive movement and the next potential Democratic administration to occupy the White House.
“For her, this decision will be seen as a legacy decision,” said George Goehl, the director at People’s Action, a progressive group that has endorsed Sanders. “It’s one of the biggest decisions of her political life. … A lot of her followers will roll with her.”
A Morning Consult survey suggested that Warren’s supporters may split fairly evenly, with 43 percent saying Sanders was their second choice compared to 36 percent for Biden. A full-throated Warren endorsement for either could potentially change that, with each option packed with political risk.
“Let’s take a deep breath and spend a little time on that,” Warren said at a press conference Thursday outside of her home. “We don’t have to decide at this minute.”
Though she ended her campaign with the third-most delegates, Warren’s support had dwindled from her time at the top of the field last fall and to when Super Tuesday arrived. Still, her support was most robust and consistent among women with higher levels of education and those who lived in suburban areas. Exit polls showed her winning roughly one-fifth of white women with a college degree in states like North Carolina and California, nearly as much as Biden and Sanders, despite their overall higher level of support.
Biden’s core support has been more centered on older black voters, moderate suburbanites generally, and those most concerned with beating President Donald Trump in the fall. Sanders has relied on young white and Latino progressives, as well as working-class voters.
Democratic operatives said they weren’t sure if Warren’s college-educated female supporters would opt for Biden and Sanders.
“I don’t think they’re a monolith,” said Christina Reynolds, a longtime Democratic strategist. “I look at my own family; she won over voters who were more moderate and more progressive.”
For her part, Reynolds said although she’s already voted for Warren, she didn’t know if she’d pick Biden or Sanders now.
Biden and Sanders already spoke over the phone to Warren before she suspended her campaign. And Democrats say they expect Biden and Sanders will make overt attempts to court Warren’s coalition over the coming days, including adding her staff to their campaigns or adopting her policy ideas. Some Warren staffers made public their intentions. Max Berger, Warren’s director for progressive partnerships, signaled he would start fighting for Sanders.
Or they could make an even bigger promise, like pledging to name a woman as their running mate.
“Just say it. Everybody expects it anyway,” said Brian Fallon, a former top aide on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign. “It would be political malpractice for either of these guys to pick someone other than a woman anyway.”
Barney Frank, the former Massachusetts congressman who favors Biden over Sanders, advised the former vice president that influence over policy is what Warren most craves.
“It’s important for him to stress his commitment to financial reform. He should convince her he’ll consult with her on appointments to financial regulatory authorities,” Frank said, noting that Sanders will struggle to convert some of Warren’s female support.
Fairly or not, a contingent of Hillary Clinton fans still blame Sanders for her 2016 loss. It wasn’t helpful when some of his most ardent supporters hurled slurs at Warren after she accused him in late January of claiming a woman couldn’t win the presidency in 2020 — a claim Sanders denies.
“The resentment of many women cannot be overestimated. That’s a retardant for many in terms of Sanders,” Frank said, adding that the most virulent members of the progressive movement only hurt their case by calling into question her commitment to the cause. “That is just garbage, and I think maybe unfairly, Sanders gets blamed for it. That’s not helping to persuade her to endorse him.”
Fallon added that in the near term, he thinks Warren’s base may not flock to either candidate, taking their time to thoroughly weigh their choice, just as their preferred candidate would.
“In the short, short term, there’s just going to be a period of mourning and reflection and disappointment over the fact that it’s not just Elizabeth Warren personally exiting the race, there’s officially just not a candidate for people interested in nominating a woman,” said Fallon, who now serves as executive director of the liberal judicial activist group Demand Justice.
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Join NowThis story was originally published March 5, 2020 at 5:16 PM with the headline "A diverse 2020 field is down to two white men. They both face challenges with Warren’s base.."
