Democrats rush behind Biden to stall Sanders on Super Tuesday. Will it be enough?
Major forces inside the Democratic Party have hastily rushed to consolidate around Joe Biden’s newly revived presidential bid, in a late gambit to stall Bernie Sanders’ momentum heading into Super Tuesday and establish a two-person race for the party’s nomination.
The sudden exits of moderates Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar from the 2020 race, along with a stream of endorsements from elected officials and party leaders across the country indicate a clear effort to bolster the former vice president after his dominant victory in Saturday’s South Carolina primary.
Tuesday’s series of contests — including primaries in 14 states, the American Samoan caucus and the start of Democrats voting from abroad — is the most significant single day on the nominating calendar, with 1,357 delegates up for grabs. And establishment Democrats have fretted for weeks that an inability to unify before this delegate bounty is dispersed could leave Sanders with an insurmountable advantage.
The cavalry has finally come for Biden. The question is if it has arrived too late.
“In a two-way race, [Sanders] is highly vulnerable,” said Michael Halle, who was a top strategist on Buttigieg’s campaign. “He’s not paid any price for the hard ceiling that is going to limit him in a smaller field.”
Sanders could still evade that fate given several complicating factors. Early voting in many of the biggest Super Tuesday states has been ongoing for weeks, banking ballots for candidates who are no longer in the race, as well as Michael Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor whose late-entry, half-a-billion dollar advertising onslaught is about to be tested for the first time. The multi-billionaire’s presence could be a boon to Sanders by siphoning moderate votes from Biden, even as he declared on Monday, “I’m in it to win it.”
Elizabeth Warren, who has managed only single-digit support in three of the first four contests, also remains in the race as a wild card whose path to the nomination looks dubious. But pressure has begun mounting from progressives activists for her to drop out and endorse Sanders.
Biden, who was endorsed by Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Beto O’Rourke Monday evening, is still almost certain to be trailing Sanders in the delegate race once all Super Tuesday’s votes are counted. But the size of his delegate deficit will be the most crucial number to determine whether he can eventually overtake Sanders as the calendar extends to more favorable electoral turf later in March and into April.
“No one knows how much the surge is going to impact [Biden]. All of the polling is useless now,” said a Democratic consultant involved in the race but not authorized to speak on the record.
After a double-digit setback in South Carolina, Sanders is hoping a string of Super Tuesday wins quickly cuts off Biden’s newfound momentum and affirms the Vermont senator’s status as a front-runner with an impregnable delegate lead. While Sanders is clinging to a six-delegate lead now, some political operatives have calculated that could mushroom to between 200 and 250 delegates after Super Tuesday.
Final results very well may not be clear by Wednesday. California, with its 415 delegates, is one of Sanders’ strongest states and properly postmarked mail-in ballots received by Friday will still count toward the total.
So in order to seize the media narrative, both Biden and Sanders may seek to capitalize on victories in the eastern time zone, even if they only represent a fraction of the complete Super Tuesday picture.
Primaries in Virginia and North Carolina look to be some of the most competitive of the evening and have the added advantage of being the kinds of battlegrounds Democrats will want to show they can perform well in come the fall.
If Biden is able to replicate his South Carolina success, it’s most likely to show up in those neighboring states as well as in Alabama, Arkansas and Tennessee, all home to significant numbers of African-American voters, a constituency Bloomberg is also vigorously courting.
“The big thing that happened, in particular for African-Americans, they saw the campaign in South Carolina,” said James Carville, the well-known Democratic operative and lead strategist for Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign. “And the fact that other African-Americans voted for Biden really means a lot to them. He’s been validated by voters.”
“They want to pick somebody who can win the election,” added Anthony Foxx, the Charlotte, North Carolina native and former secretary of transportation who is backing Biden. “They want to pick somebody they can trust in the Oval Office. Up until this weekend for some people … they couldn’t see it. But now people remembered all over again why we love this guy.”
Both Vermont and Massachusetts will feature home-state candidates, but Sanders is threatening to sweep both, tracking ahead of Warren in Massachusetts, according to polls. His encroachment on Klobuchar in Minnesota factored into her decision to drop out of the race before risking embarrassment. Sanders’ last campaign stop on Monday night was at a rally in St. Paul, and there was some question whether Klobuchar’s vacating of the race there would actually yield Sanders more delegates.
But Texas, along with California, will be by far the biggest prizes, dispensing nearly half of all delegates available on Super Tuesday. Sanders is attempting to roll up a double-digit victory in California, while carrying Texas on the strength of his support with Latino voters.
“He’s got the strongest Latino outreach,” said Jacob Limon, who directed Sanders’ Texas operation in 2016. “I think stronger Latino turnout benefits Sanders the most.”
Limon said Biden benefits from decades of familiarity and support from elected officials, but might be hamstrung by those who voted early and considered his poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire.
“By the time South Carolina came along, most of the votes had been cast,” Limon said. “Early vote closed Saturday. I think there probably are people who would’ve voted for Biden if they had known he would do so well.”
Even so, the 48 hours since Biden’s South Carolina’s rebound has undoubtedly been the campaign’s best stretch. Like dominoes, party luminaries like former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Vicki Kennedy of Massachusetts and former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid fell in line.
Both Klobuchar and O’Rourke joined Biden at a Monday evening rally in Dallas, where they each stressed their formal rival’s personal character, kindness and empathy.
“What I want all for you to do is vote for Joe. Vote for decency, vote for dignity, vote for a heart for our country. That is what he will bring to the White House,” Klobuchar said.
Biden then called all of his endorsers on stage together, a gathering demonstration of Democratic Party unity.
Speaking to reporters earlier in Salt Lake City, Sanders feigned shock at what may prove to be his most onerous challenge yet.
“There is a massive effort trying to stop Bernie Sanders. … The corporate establishment is coming together, the political establishment is coming together. And they will do everything,” he said. “They are really getting nervous that working people are standing up.”
Alex Roarty contributed reporting.
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Join NowThis story was originally published March 3, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Democrats rush behind Biden to stall Sanders on Super Tuesday. Will it be enough?."
