SC primaries are Tuesday. What latest polls say in GOP, Dem. races for governor
Polling released in the last two weeks leading up to Tuesday’s primary in the race for governor show a possible toss-up for first place for the Republican nomination as well as the high likelihood of a June 23 runoff.
The race for the GOP nomination for governor received a jolt May 29 when President Donald Trump endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette’s campaign. It was the most sought after endorsement in the race as Trump continues to have a grip on the GOP and his support is almost a guarantee of victory in a primary.
Still, in the latest polling, and with a crowded GOP field and high amount of undecided voters, a candidate receiving a majority of votes cast in the Republican race appears doubtful leading to the top two advancing to a runoff in two weeks.
It appears Evette received an initial Trump bump.
A Trafalgar Group Poll conducted May 21-24, had Evette in the lead with 19.9%, Attorney General Alan Wilson in second with 19.4%, and businessman Rom Reddy in third with 19%. U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman was in fourth with 15.9% and U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace in fifth with 14.6%.
In a Trafalgar snapshot of the race conducted May 29-31, Evette moved up to 26.3%, Reddy was at 17.2% and Wilson was at 16.9%.
“I’ve added to my message that I’m the only Trump-endorsed candidate in this race,” Evette said during a campaign stop Thursday in Cayce. “I was so honored to have President Trump’s endorsement. (He) called me around quarter to six on (May 29), so I’ve been adding that into my speech.”
However, when Trump endorsed the lieutenant governor, he also alluded to the current governor’s son, Henry D. McMaster Jr., being Evette’s running mate. But Evette has yet to name a running mate and mentioning the governor’s son in the endorsement led to criticism in political circles and from Evette’s rivals.
A Trafalgar poll from June 2-4 saw Evette’s support drop to 23.5%, with Wilson up to 18.5%, and Reddy at 17.9%. The margin of error was 2.9%.
Amid the pushback against the potential running mate pick, and after the new polling came out, McMaster Jr. posted on social media he would not be Evette’s ticket.
“I’ve been overwhelmed by the outpouring of support from friends, neighbors, colleagues and even strangers encouraging me to run for public office, but now is simply not the right time for me to be considered for lieutenant governor,” McMaster Jr. posted as he voiced his support for Evette.
An independent poll conducted by The Tyson Group for P2 Public Affairs, conducted June 1-3, showed Wilson in the lead with 18.8% and Evette in second with 18%.
But when respondents are told about the Trump endorsement, Evette moves up to 24.8% and Wilson drops to 18.4%.
“It raised people’s expectations. It didn’t raise their chances,” Wilson said Thursday of Trump’s endorsement of Evette. “When I look, when I think about this endorsement, look, President Trump and Gov. McMaster are good friends. They are loyal to each other. I respect both of those men, but that endorsement was about a friendship.”
“I’m looking at internal polling right now, and what I can tell you is I am very comfortable with where I am,” Wilson added at the campaign stop on Thursday.
That Tyson Group poll had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. It also showed Wilson had the highest net favorability rating at plus 20 points. Norman was at plus 18 points. Evette was at plus 6 points. Reddy was viewed as almost equally favorable and unfavorable. Mace was underwater by 17 points.
Wilson also had a lead among respondents who voted in all three of three most recent primaries. Evette led among those who voted in one or two of the last three primaries.
Other polling outfits show Evette with a lead.
A poll conducted from June 2-4 by Kansas City-based Co/Efficient, which has previously appeared on Evette’s expense reports, found Evette leading with 23%, Reddy with 17%, Wilson with 16%, Norman with 15% and Mace with 11%. The company said on social media no campaign or candidate sponsored the poll.
The survey also showed 77% of respondents knew Evette had the Trump endorsement. Still, she is far from clinching the nomination outright Tuesday.
The Reddy campaign, who has put $5.8 million into his campaign as of May 20, said he, Evette and Wilson are pulling away from others.
“This is now a two-tier race. Pam, Alan, and I are in the top tier, and Nancy and Ralph are in the bottom tier,” Reddy’s campaign said on X.
A poll released Sunday evening by InsiderAdvantage, had Evette in the lead at 19%, with Wilson in second with 16%. Mace and Reddy were both at 13% in the poll.
Norman, who has put in $3.75 million of his own money into the campaign, said everyone in the GOP contest would have wanted Trump’s endorsement, but added the president isn’t a candidate in the race.
“(I) talk to different people that like the Trump endorsement, you have some that don’t like it,” Norman said at a campaign stop in Lexington. “So it’s all a matter of your perception as a whole. I think it’s a positive for Ms. Evette, but everybody’s got to make that choice, and Trump’s not on the ballot here. Our names are on the ballot.”
The attorney general had the lead in a poll conducted by Starboard Communications, which is not working for any campaign for governor.
In the poll of 500 voters conducted on June 3 and 4, Wilson led with 19.4% of support.
The poll, first reported by FitsNews and confirmed by Starboard President Walt Whetsell, had Evette at 19.2% and Reddy at 14.2%.
Another poll reported by FitsNews conducted by Opinion Diagnostics, had Wilson in the lead with 21.6%, Evette in second with 16.9%, Reddy in third with 16.3%, Norman in fourth place with 12%, and Mace in fifth with 11.9%. State Sen. Josh Kimbrell, who has dropped out of the race was at 1.6%. The poll of 675 likely primary voters had 19.8% of voters undecided.
The Citadel also conducted polls on the races in both major parties. However, it was conducted between May 21-31, mostly before the Trump endorsement.
In the Republican race, Evette polled at 17% in the survey. Mace and Wilson were tied for second with 16%. Reddy was in fourth with 14%. Norman was in fifth with 13%.
One late outlier was released Sunday that showed Mace in the lead.
The Public Sentiment Institute had Mace leading with 30%, withe Evette in second with about 25%. However, according to a breakdown of the survey, Evette led among voters who identified themselves as Republicans and Mace led among voters who identified as moderates and Democrats, who have their own primary for governor on Tuesday.
Appearing on CNN on Sunday, Mace called the race a dog fight.
“New independent poll just came out,” Mace posted on X. “We fully intend to make the runoff Tuesday.”
Most of the surveys had a significant portion of respondents who were still undecided. If none of the hopefuls receive a simple majority of votes, then the top two finishers advance to a June 23 runoff, leading to two more weeks of campaigning.
“I have never, ever, seen statewide races this close to Election Day with such high numbers of undecided voters,” InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery said in a statement. “This means one of two things. Either voters are apathetic and turnout will be anemic, or there could be some shocking results in some of these races on Tuesday.”
Scant polling in Democratic race
Only two public polls of the Democratic Party race have been released since Greenville businessman Billy Webster entered the race in March.
The Citadell poll had State Rep. Jermaine Johnson leading in the poll with 33% of the support. Webster, who has invested heavily in television advertising with his personal wealth, was in second place with 18%. Charleston attorney Mullins McLeod was in third place with 6%. The poll found 43% of respondents were undecided.
A South Carolina Policy Council poll of 500 Democrats conducted from May 18-21, also had Johnson in the lead. The Richland County Democrat had 27% of the support, Webster was at 14%, and McLeod was at 6%. Undecided voters made up 49% of the respondents.
This story was originally published June 8, 2026 at 9:22 AM with the headline "SC primaries are Tuesday. What latest polls say in GOP, Dem. races for governor."
