Beijing Doubles Down in South China Sea Dispute

An uninhabited reef in the South China Sea has become one of the region’s major flashpoints, where clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels have raised concerns that a miscalculation could draw in the United States.

Scarborough Shoal is a rich fishing ground China wrested from U.S. ally the Philippines in 2012, despite a defense treaty going back six decades.

Chinese forces have frequently expelled Filipino fishermen from the area, and its Coast Guard on multiple occasions has confronted Philippine government vessels using ramming maneuvers and water cannons. Tensions have further escalated since September 2025, when Beijing declared a nature reserve over much of the shoal.

In late May, the Philippines reported China had placed buoys and a floating platform in Scarborough’s lagoon, condemning these moves as violations of its sovereignty. China later removed the vessel platform, saying it had been conducting marine research.

Meanwhile, China has stepped up its Coast Guard presence, with nearly as many patrols in the first six months of the year (933) as in the entirety of 2025 (1,099), according to an analysis of ship tracking data by the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

Newsweek reached out to China’s Foreign Ministry by email with a request for comment.

Actions Speak Louder Than Words

Since the Philippine-China dispute intensified in 2023, U.S. officials-including former President Joe Biden-have repeatedly stressed that the seven-decade Mutual Defense Treaty is “ironclad” and applies to an armed attack on Philippine forces, aircraft or public vessels anywhere in the Pacific.

While these public statements have become less frequent during President Donald Trump’s second term, Philippine officials point to other signs of continued U.S. support from Washington.

“We look at the actions of our treaty ally, and these actions speak a million words. While we may not hear so much on policy pronouncements, we will look at actions,” Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, a spokesperson for the Armed Forces of the Philippines, said in an interview with Newsweek.

Among these actions is an increase in joint patrols, such as the June 27-28 exercises local media said took place around 60 miles from the atoll, when U.S. Coast Guard vessels joined Philippine navy and Coast Guard ships in drills observed from a distance by a Chinese warship.

These patrols will “become the norm in the coming months,” Rear Admiral Jay Tarriela, Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson, said.

Another example the official cited is the hands-on training U.S. forces have provided on weapons systems such as the anti-ship NMESIS missile system and U.S. Army medium-range missiles that place parts of China’s Eastern Seaboard within range and that Beijing has repeatedly demanded be removed.

Chinese officials have repeatedly accused the Philippines of colluding with outside powers to undermine peace and stability in the South China Sea.

The Philippine military establishment remains firmly behind Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, one of Beijing’s most outspoken critics, whom China sanctioned on June 11, 2026 over what it described as his “egregious conduct,” Trinidad said.

“In doing his job, he gets sanctioned by a foreign power,” Trinidad said. “We are proud of the actions of our secretary of defense.”

Anniversary of a Landmark Ruling

Sunday marked a milestone in the Philippines’ efforts to strengthen the legal basis for its position in the territorial dispute-the 10th anniversary of a decision by an independent tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

Citing the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to which both countries are signatories, the ruling largely rejected China’s sweeping maritime claims.

“Of course the legal victory-we should put that front and center, but it should have a wider scope,” Teodoro told reporters Monday. The “victory” is only one of several steps the country should pursue to protect its maritime claims, he added.

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South China Sea maritime claims

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International support marking the anniversary has poured in, including a joint statement backing the award signed by 14 countries, including the U.S., the Philippines, Australia, the United Kingdom and Germany.

“We support our Philippine Allies in commemorating the 10th anniversary of the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Award. With our Philippine counterparts, we call on China to uphold the rule of law at sea,” U.S. Ambassador Lee Lipton wrote on X. The European Union also issued a statement reaffirming the award, calling it “final and legally binding.”

Beijing refused to participate in the arbitration case and rejected the ruling, arguing it falls outside the jurisdiction of UNCLOS.

“China has repeatedly clarified that the so-called ‘awards’ in the ‘South China Sea arbitration case’ are illegal, invalid, and non-binding, and China does not accept or recognize them,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters Friday.

China’s “historic rights” are “established in the long course of history,” the country’s embassy in Manila wrote in a separate statement Sunday. The embassy pointed to Chinese maritime activities in the waterway as early as 200 B.C. as among the evidence supporting Beijing’s claims.

The U.S. and other countries from outside the region “persistently reinforcing their military presence” is only “fanning the flames” of the territorial tensions in the region, the embassy added.

What Is China’s End Game?

The placement of objects inside the shoal has led some observers to question whether it could mark the beginning of a more permanent Chinese presence there, similar to the notorious Mischief Reef.

China militarized the feature, located about 520 miles to the south of Scarborough and also within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, despite earlier assurances it would not. Today it hosts a People’s Liberation Army outpost with air and naval facilities.

“China is probing here. One view is that Beijing is testing potential responses to a permanent structure at Scarborough Shoal, and whether it can achieve that with as little pushback as possible,” Jeffrey Ordaniel, president and CEO of We Protect Our Seas, told Newsweek.

China may also have been seeking to reinforce its claim ahead of the 10th anniversary of the Award, “which demolished the legal credibility of China’s expansive claims,” Ordaniel said. “I think it is both.”

China’s nature reserve and scientific mission narratives are part of a strategy to normalize the country’s administration over the shoal, Ordaniel believes.

“Then the next step becomes easier: restricting access, regulating Filipino fishers, challenging Philippine patrols, or eventually justifying a more permanent presence.”

While the Philippines’ pushback at Scarborough Shoal and other contested territories as met with fierce protests from Beijing, Chinese state-affiliated analysts are projecting confidence, arguing the U.S. presence is less about preparing for conflict than using the Philippines to slow China’s rise.

“The main purpose of the U.S. military’s increased military presence in the Philippines is to strategically build momentum, contain and wear down opponents, rather than preparing for war,” the Beijing-based South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative wrote in an analysis released Wednesday.

“That is, leveraging the Philippines’ geographical proximity to strengthen its presence around the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, creating a strategically advantageous posture for itself, and using the Philippines to wear down China during peacetime.”

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Frances Mao and James Debens

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This story was originally published July 13, 2026 at 12:05 PM.