Analysis | Trump veers toward exit in Iran war but risks loom

WASHINGTON - With an agreement on a framework for a peace deal with Iran, President Donald Trump may have found a way to begin extricating himself from an unpopular war while setting global markets on a path toward easing energy prices that have spiked during the crisis. 

But he has settled for a deal that appears short of many of the goals he outlined in the early days of the conflict, potentially opening himself up to attacks from hawks in his own party and leaving the U.S. looking strategically worse off than it did before he went to war. 

More than three months after attacking the Islamic Republic, Trump on Sunday gave his approval to a “memorandum of understanding” (MOU) that marks the most significant breakthrough in peace talks so far, including Iran’s commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which could help lower high U.S. gasoline prices.

At the same time, the Pakistani-mediated deal - the text of which was not immediately released - also apparently calls for significant U.S. concessions, including deferring discussions over ending Iran’s nuclear program, Trump’s main stated war objective.

Trump’s pursuit of an exit plan has intensified amid growing pressure to end a war that has killed thousands, inflicted economic pain at home and driven down his approval ratings just months ahead of November’s U.S. midterm elections. His Republican Party is struggling to maintain control of Congress.

In the run-up to Sunday’s announcement, his efforts, however, had already faced pushback from Iran hawks in Washington who warned about giving up too much to Tehran.

“The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all!” Trump said in a social media post on his 80th birthday. Shortly afterwards, Iran confirmed the accord, which is due to be signed on Friday but will leave many critical questions unanswered.

The two sides have put forth sometimes conflicting interpretations of the framework, which is meant to extend the current ceasefire for 60 days to allow for detailed talks to permanently end a war that has created an unprecedented global energy supply shock.

Trump also faces the prospect of the U.S. looking weakened, while Iran, though battered militarily and economically, could end up with greater leverage, analysts say. 

Although there is little doubt that U.S. and Israeli strikes heavily degraded Iran’s military capabilities, Tehran has shown it can survive an onslaught while throttling one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.

The White House did not respond to Reuters’ questions for this story. 

Some Trump objectives unmet

Trump, who campaigned for a second term on promises to avoid foreign interventions and focus on Americans’ economic concerns, has framed the outcome as a resounding U.S. victory - even as Iran has made similar claims.

Still, most analysts agree that Trump – who once demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” – has been stymied on many of his often-shifting goals for the war.

Iran’s theocratic government, which Trump urged Iranians to overthrow at the outset of the conflict, remains largely intact, and leaders who replaced those killed in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes appear even more hardline.

Also unmet are his earlier demands that Iran dismantle its ballistic missile program and stop support for regional proxies. Even so, a U.S. official told reporters that the preliminary deal accomplishes Trump’s core objectives.

In addition, the MOU does not fully resolve the fate of Iran’s near-bomb-grade uranium stockpile.

Trump said in a social media post on Saturday that the U.S. would go in, get the material and “downblend and destroy it,” but gave no timetable. An Iranian official spoke only of Iran agreeing to “dilute” the stockpile on its own but with no mechanism yet determined.

“This deal is likely the best possible outcome to avert further conflict, but it is no better than what could have been achieved had the United States pursued diplomacy rather than war in the first place,” said Victoria Taylor, a former deputy assistant secretary of state now at the Atlantic Council think tank.

It is also unclear if the final deal will be an improvement on the one former President Barack Obama reached with Iran in 2015 to rein in its nuclear program, and which Trump scrapped in 2018 during his first term.

U.S. officials have insisted that any unfreezing of billions of dollars in Iranian funds or easing of sanctions will be gradual and based on whether Tehran meets requirements. Iran has signaled it expects some money and sanctions relief up-front. 

By opening the door to such moves, Trump could face the kind of accusations he has long leveled at Obama of providing Iran with a financial lifeline to help underwrite its nuclear ambitions and other security threats.

Iran threat to persist

Trump and his aides have touted as a major achievement what they say is Iran’s commitment never to acquire a nuclear weapon.

But Tehran had declared for years that it would always abide by an Islamic decree issued by former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an air strike at the start of the war, that prohibited the development of a bomb.

Though the MOU calls for Iran to quickly lift restrictions on shipping in the strait and for the U.S. to remove its naval blockade of Iranian ports, Tehran has insisted that it must retain a role that it lacked pre-war in managing the strategic waterway.

The reopening of the strait itself would only return to the status quo that existed before the conflict.

“Iran has demonstrated that even in a starkly weakened state, it can shut the Strait of Hormuz at will. That’s not going away,” said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington. 

The war started by Trump has killed thousands, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, where fighting between Israel and Iran-aligned Hezbollah militants was reignited. The conflict has also claimed the lives of 13 U.S. service members.

The U.S. military’s price tag has amounted to tens of billions of dollars, and munitions stockpiles have been drawn down. There have also been deepening strains between the U.S. and European allies, who were not consulted before Trump went to war.

Another challenge for Trump is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who forged a close wartime alliance with him but has said his country will not be party to the MOU. The two leaders clashed on Sunday over Israel’s continuing military campaign in Lebanon.

Washington’s Gulf allies, the targets of Iranian missile and drone attacks, have pushed for a peaceful settlement but will now face the prospect of a wounded neighbor still able to threaten them with its remaining arsenal.

Copyright Reuters or USA Today Network via Reuters Connect.