Colombia votes amid insecurity, polarization and fiscal strains
May 29 (UPI) -- Colombia will head to the polls Sunday to elect its next president under an unprecedented security deployment that includes 246,000 members of the security forces and 386 municipalities under alert because of armed violence.
More than 41 million voters are eligible to choose the successor to President Gustavo Petro in an election that underscores the increasingly polarized political landscape across Latin America.
The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights this Friday expressed concern over incidents of political violence reported during the campaign. The commission urged Colombian authorities to take all necessary measures to guarantee the final stage of the presidential election process, particularly the safety of presidential candidates.
The government confirmed it had strengthened security measures for presidential campaigns, party leaders and regional political figures in some of the country's most vulnerable areas.
Political analysts and research institutions say the election is not merely a contest between parties but a clash between two sharply different visions for Colombia's future.
The governing coalition is seeking to continue and deepen the leftist agenda of Petro's administration, while opposition forces are campaigning on a shift to the right centered on tougher security policies and free-market economics. Political centrists have struggled to gain traction in the national debate.
A total of 13 candidates are competing, although most remain below 3% support in public opinion surveys.
According to recent polls by firms including Invamer, Guarumo and Ecoanalítica, three candidates have emerged as the leading contenders.
Government-backed candidate Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact coalition, the same political movement that brought Petro to power, leads voting intentions with support ranging from 38% to 44.6%. His strongest backing comes from Bogotá and Colombia's coastal regions, where the political left maintains a loyal voter base.
On the opposite end of the political spectrum, Abelardo de la Espriella of the Defenders of the Homeland party has posted the strongest late-campaign gains. Polls place him between 23.9% and 31.6%, driven by a hardline law-and-order message that has attracted voters dissatisfied with Petro's administration and weakened support for traditional conservative parties.
Close behind is Sen. Paloma Valencia of the Democratic Center party, representing Colombia's traditional right. Surveys place her support between 14% and 22.8%. Analysts say Valencia could emerge as the strongest challenger to Cepeda in a runoff because of her ability to unify center-right and conservative voters.
Polls indicate no candidate is likely to surpass the 50% threshold required for an outright victory, making a June 21 runoff appear increasingly likely.
The election takes place as Colombia confronts persistent insecurity, slowing economic growth, structural inequality and institutional tensions. Debate over Petro's economic and environmental agenda has further intensified political divisions.
One event that profoundly shaped the campaign was the 2025 assassination of Sen. Miguel Uribe Turbay, which revived memories of Colombia's history of political violence and was later politically leveraged by De la Espriella, who vowed to "gut the left.
Throughout his presidency, Petro frequently accused institutions including the judiciary, the Attorney General's Office and oversight agencies of attempting a "soft coup" or obstructing his policies.
Those institutions, in turn, accused the executive branch of trying to bypass democratic checks and balances and undermine judicial independence.
Colombia's economic outlook presents a mixed picture. According to the National Administrative Department of Statistics, unemployment has improved this year and multidimensional poverty fell to 9.9%, marking the first single-digit reading in the country's history.
However, fiscal conditions remain a growing concern.
According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, or ECLAC, Colombia has experienced one of the region's sharpest fiscal deteriorations. International publications including The Economist have warned that Colombia has the second-highest fiscal deficit among 40 economies analyzed.
The ANIF economic research center and financial services firm Corficolombiana have warned that the fiscal deficit could reach 7% of gross domestic product, exceeding government targets and pushing public debt above 60% of GDP.
The next president will also inherit a worsening public security situation marked by the territorial expansion and financial strengthening of illegal armed groups.
According to the Electoral Observation Mission, an independent coalition of civil society organizations and universities, several peripheral regions with a history of armed conflict remain under the highest security alerts. The organization also reported increases in high-impact crimes such as extortion and kidnapping in rural areas.
Analysts from the Foundation for Peace and Reconciliation and international risk consulting firms argue that the outgoing administration's peace strategy weakened the state's capacity to confront armed groups.
According to those assessments, Petro's "Total Peace" initiative allowed factions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as FARC dissidents, and the Gulf Clan criminal organization to consolidate control over strategic narcotics trafficking and illegal mining corridors in departments including Cauca, Antioquia and Arauca.
Experts broadly agree that Colombia's next president will face the immediate challenge of redefining the limits of negotiations with armed groups while restoring the legitimate presence of state security forces in territories historically affected by conflict.
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This story was originally published May 29, 2026 at 2:54 PM.