Gina Hinojosa Chances Against Greg Abbott Compared to Beto O'Rourke in 2022

Democratic State Representative Gina Hinojosa trailed Republican Governor Greg Abbott by 5 points in the latest poll of the Texas gubernatorial race published on Tuesday.

Texas is attracting investment from Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, despite its status as one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. Democrats believe President Donald Trump's declining national approval rating could fuel a blue wave that allows them to compete in more conservative states. In Texas, the Senate race has drawn national attention.

Abbott is viewed by forecasters as a strong favorite for reelection, though polls suggest the race could be closer than his 11-point victory over former Representative Beto O'Rourke in 2022.

Newsweek reached out to the Abbott and Hinojosa campaigns for comment via email.

Hinojosa in Striking Distance in New Poll

The new poll from Reconnaissance Market Research, the Siena Research Institute and Texas A&M University points to a potentially close race but gives Abbott an advantage. Abbott received 49 percent support in the poll compared to Hinojosa's 44 percent.

Hinojosa pales in name recognition compared to Abbott, who is running for a fourth term in office. Fifty percent of respondents said they have no opinion about her, while 32 percent view her favorably and 18 percent view her unfavorably.

Abbott is more well-known, with 45 percent viewing him favorably and 49 percent unfavorably, according to the poll.

It polled 807 likely voters from June 1-4 and had a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.

How Hinojosa's Polling Compares to Beto O'Rourke's in 2022

The latest polling gives Abbott a single-digit lead over Hinojosa-a similar position to his 2022 reelection, though some polls suggest his victory could be tighter than his 11-point win four years earlier.

The latest poll from Texas Public Opinion Research, which surveyed 1,670 likely voters from May 27-28, found Abbott leading by 5 points with 46 percent compared to Hinojosa's 41 percent. A Public Policy Polling survey, which was conducted among 643 registered voters from May 22-23, showed him up four points with 48 percent to Hinojosa's 44 percent.

A poll from the poll from Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center showed Abbott up 6 points with 49 percent to Hinojosa's 43 percent. It surveyed 1,223 likely voters from April 22 to May 6.

In 2022, Abbott went on to win with just under 55 percent of the vote to O'Rourke's 44 percent. Polling from June 2022 showed O'Rourke trailing by single digits, though he often struggled to hit 40 percent in polls.

A University of Texas at Tyler poll, which surveyed 1,232 registered voters from May 2-10, 2022, showed Abbott with 46 percent to O'Rourke's 39 percent.

A Quinnipiac University poll, which surveyed 1,257 registered voters from June 9-13, 2022, found Abbott up with 48 percent to O'Rourke's 43 percent. Meanwhile, a YouGov/University of Texas poll around the same time found Abbott leading with 45 percent to O'Rourke's 39 percent. It surveyed 1,200 registered voters from June 16-24, 2022.

Abbott's Fundraising Advantage

Abbott benefits from high name recognition and strong fundraising. He entered the race with $106 million in the bank, reported The Texas Tribune. Hinojosa is less well known than O'Rourke was in 2022, due to his 2018 Senate and presidential bids.

Keeping up with Abbott's fundraising will be a challenge, and Texas is an expensive state in which to compete due to having several expensive media markets around cities like Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio.

However, 2026 is expected to be a better year for Democrats compared to 2022, and Democrats believe state Representative James Talarico is in a strong position to flip the Senate race, with some polls even showing him with a lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton. The latest poll showed Talarico up 3 points with 47 percent to Paxton's 44 percent.

Abbott Favored in Prediction Markets

Abbott holds a solid lead in prediction markets, holding an 84 percent chance on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of Tuesday afternoon.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Can Texas Finally Flip in 2026?

Democrats have long hoped that Texas, the largest Republican-leaning state, would become more competitive due to blue-shifting suburban areas around cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston.

At the presidential level, that played out throughout the 2010s. Republican margins shrank from nearly 16 points in 2012 to 9 points in 2016 to under 6 points in 2020. Democrats were able to make some races close in Texas, including the 2018 Senate race between GOP Senator Ted Cruz and O'Rourke.

But Republicans built back support in 2024, when Trump won the state by about 14 points due to a stronger showing in suburban areas and among the state's Latino population.

Still, polling suggests Democrats enter 2026 in a stronger position across the board, and Democrats have performed well in recent special elections across the country-particularly in areas with a high concentration of Latino voters, suggesting there could be a reversion back to Democrats.

Midterms are generally a referendum on the sitting president, so Trump's declining approval threatens to weaken Republicans nationwide. Concerns over the cost of living and rising gas prices amid the Iran war also hang over the elections.

Hispanic and Latino Voters: Texas' New Swing Voters

In Texas, Hispanic and Latino voters will play a key role in this year's elections.

Former President Joe Biden won Texas Latino voters by 17 points in 2020, but Trump won them by 10 points in 2024. But there are indications that this segment of the Trump coalition is fragile and at risk of breaking. A reversion toward Democrats could help Democrats in Texas.

Talarico has generally led Latino voters in polling, including by 10 points in the new poll. It also found that Trump's approval is underwater among the voting group, with 44 percent approving of Trump and 55 percent disapproving.

In the most recent Texas Public Opinion Research poll, Talarico received 57 percent while Paxton received 30 percent among Hispanic voters.

Trump's approval rating has plummeted with Hispanic voters who supported him in 2024, according to a Pew Research Center poll released in May, which found that only 66 percent of Hispanic voters who cast their ballots for Trump in 2024 approve of his job performance-the lowest point in his second term.

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This story was originally published June 9, 2026 at 3:14 PM.