James Talarico's Chances of Beating Ken Paxton in Texas Get Boost-Poll

Democratic state Representative James Talarico holds a 3‑point lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the latest poll of Texas’s U.S. Senate race released Tuesday.

Despite Texas's reputation as a reliably Republican state, Democrats are hopeful about their chances of flipping the seat in November due to a favorable national environment fueled by President Donald Trump's negative approval rating, political baggage carried by Paxton and reversion among Hispanic voters who trended toward the GOP in 2024.

Even as polls show a potentially competitive race, Texas is viewed as an uphill challenge for Democrats, but the new poll released Tuesday by Reconnaissance Market Research and the Siena Research Institute is welcome news for Talarico about his current standing against Paxton.

Newsweek reached out to the Talarico and Paxton campaigns via email for comment.

Talarico Leads Paxton in New Poll

The poll found that 47 percent of respondents plan to vote for Talarico in November, compared to 44 percent for Paxton. Among independents, a critical voting bloc, 52 percent plan to vote for Talarico and 34 percent for Paxton. The Democratic candidate also held a 10-point lead among Latino voters, winning 51 percent of them compared to Paxton's 41 percent.

Talarico is viewed more favorably than Paxton among Texans, according to the poll. Forty-one percent of respondents viewed Talarico positively, compared with 34 percent who held unfavorable views of him. When it comes to Paxton, just 34 percent view him favorably compared to 54 percent who view him unfavorably.

The poll found that even as Talarico led the Senate race, Republican Governor Greg Abbott led Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 5 points in the gubernatorial race, 49 percent to 44 percent. That suggests some Texans plan to cast a ballot for Talarico while supporting other Republicans on the ballot.

It polled 807 likely voters from June 1-4, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Why Democrats Think Talarico Has a Path in Texas

Democrats have long hoped that Texas, the largest Republican-leaning state, would become more competitive due to blue-shifting suburban areas around cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston.

At the presidential level, that played out throughout the 2010s. Republican margins shrank from nearly 16 points in 2012 to nine points in 2016 to under six points in 2020. Democrats were able to make some races close in Texas, including the 2018 Senate race between Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Beto O'Rourke.

But 2024 saw Democrats lose ground in Texas as Republicans outperformed among Hispanic and Latino voters. Trump won the state by about 14 points, delivering a blow to Democrats' hopes of flipping the Lone Star State.

This year presents Democrats with a more favorable national environment due to Trump's declining popularity amid economic concerns around the cost of living and the Iran war, which sent gas prices surging over recent months. Democrats believe that could expand the Senate battleground.

Talarico, Democrats believe, may be able to reach more independents and moderate Republicans with his focus on his Christian faith on the campaign trail-though Republicans have sought to highlight some of his past remarks about God being nonbinary and eating meat to cast him as out of touch with Texans.

Ken Paxton Scandals Explained

The ascension of Paxton has alarmed some Republicans.

Paxton defeated Senator John Cornyn in the Republican runoff last month with Trump’s endorsement and support from Texas Republicans' conservative base. But some in the party fear he could alienate more moderate voters, giving Democrats an opening in a state that is usually more difficult for them to win.

Concerns stem from a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House over articles alleging bribery and abuse of public trust.

The impeachment investigation stemmed from a proposed whistleblower lawsuit settlement, involving several of Paxton’s former aides who said they were fired after accusing the attorney general of accepting bribes and other misconduct. The attorney general has denied any wrongdoing and urged his supporters to protest outside the statehouse.

Paxton was acquitted in the Texas Senate. The attorney general has described the impeachment as a "weaponization of our political system” that was “designed to intimidate, bankrupt, silence, and punish me for representing the voters instead of the entrenched political establishment."

"Lobbyists and donors in Texas have attacked me since my first day in politics because I was an outsider who took the voters' concerns straight to the Capitol," he wrote in a September 2024 statement.

He has also recently faced scrutiny over a Waco plea deal offered by prosecutors under Paxton to a man accused of repeatedly sexually abusing a young boy. The deal would have allowed the defendant to serve just one day in jail after pleading guilty to reduced misdemeanor charges.

What Do Other Polls Show?

Polls generally show a close race in Texas.

A Quantus Insights poll, which surveyed 800 likely voters from June 3-4, showed Paxton up 2 points with 45 percent to Talarico's 43 percent. An earlier Texas Public Opinion Research Poll showed Talarico with 47 percent and Paxton with 44 percent. It had surveyed 1,670 likely voters from May 27-28.

A poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center showed Paxton and Talarico tied with 45 percent support. It surveyed 1,223 likely voters from April 22 to May 6.

Paxton is now tasked with uniting Republican voters, including those who voted for Cornyn and are more skeptical of his campaign, before the November general election. Struggling to do so could give Talarico a better chance at flipping the seat.

Talarico has sought to appeal to Cornyn's supporters.

"I want to thank Senator John Cornyn for his years representing our state. We don't agree on everything, but we both still believe in public service. To Senator Cornyn's supporters: you have a place in our campaign," he wrote on X after the runoff.

Paxton Favored in Prediction Markets

Prediction markets favor Paxton. Polymarket gave him a 59 percent chance of winning the election in November, and Kalshi gave him a 60 percent chance as of Tuesday morning.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Hispanic and Latino Voters: Texas' New Swing Voters

In Texas, Hispanic and Latino voters will play a key role in the race. Former President Joe Biden won Texas Latino voters by 17 points in 2020, but Trump won them by 10 points in 2024. But there are indications that this segment of the Trump coalition is fragile and at risk of breaking in the midterms. A reversion would bolster Democrats in a state like Texas, where Latino voters make up a significant portion of the electorate.

Talarico has generally led Latino voters in polling, including by 10 points in the new poll. It also found that Trump's approval is underwater among the voting group, with 44 percent approving of Trump and 55 percent disapproving.

In the most recent Texas Public Opinion Research poll, Talarico received 57 percent while Paxton received 30 percent among Hispanic voters.

Trump's approval rating has plummeted with Hispanic voters who supported him in 2024, according to a Pew Research Center poll released in May, which found that only 66 percent of Hispanic voters who cast their ballots for Trump in 2024 approve of his job performance-the lowest point in his second term.

When Did Texas Last Elect a Democratic Senator?

Texans haven’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Lloyd Bentsen won reelection to a fourth term in 1988. Democrats have made some races close, including the 2018 contest between Republican Ted Cruz (51 percent) and Democrat Beto O'Rourke (48 percent).

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This story was originally published June 9, 2026 at 1:28 PM.